Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/10980596462

Sale 1.

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1716681600/1716940800

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198403404710#!/compare/1716508800/1716940800

Backpack buy, Ignoring

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/14029785866

Sale 2.

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199485225128#!/compare/1712880000/1712966400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282873040#!/compare/1712361600/1712966400

Looks to be a:

Strange Pumpkin Moon Twisted Topper

Burning Flames Dapper Dickens (unpriced and doesn't show up on buyers side) 

History: https://backpack.tf/item/14141295843

For: 

Galactic Codex Captain Space Mann (price out of date)

History: https://backpack.tf/item/4446389081

Regardless of prices being out of date/no price, going off of buy orders alone for the Dickens and Space Mann would make the Strange Pumpkin Moon Twisted Topper less then 50% of the valve thus making it bulk

Listings of both items: https://imgur.com/a/Bcv5Do9

375 keys for the Galactic Codex Captain Space Mann

251 keys for the Burning Flames Dapper Dickens

375/2 = 187.5 keys what 50% should be

375 - 251 = 124 keys what we get

This makes the Strange Pumpkin Moon Twisted Topper 124 keys

Even if it was 50% or more it would still be below current buy orders

Current listings: https://imgur.com/a/2PLcOzW

While I could go further and investigate the other items involved it would more then likely show what is already know and would probably even lower the valve of the Twisted Topper even more

Sale 3. ?

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055518037#!/compare/1713139200/1713312000

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199485225128#!/compare/1713225600/1715990400

Untraced

With the previous statement

This trade happened 5 days later for an unknown amount so I think its save to ignore sale 2

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/14163957712

Sale 4.

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977601995#!/compare/1713744000/1714262400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005376219#!/compare/1713484800/1714176000

Shows 76 keys on buyers side

Shows 176 keys on seller side

Taking 176 keys

Sale 5.

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332163124#!/compare/1716422400/1716508800

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977601995#!/compare/1716422400/1716595200

Keys don't show on sellers side but do appear on buyers 

Shows 180 keys

Taking 180 keys

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/10770360664

This has some MP sales

MP listing: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201;strange

Sale. 6

April 26th

Sold 400 usd

Key price = 1.65 usd

400/1.65 = 242.42

Rounded to 242 keys

Sale. 7

May 1st

399.99 usd

Key price = 1.65 usd

399.99/ 1.65 = 242.41 keys

Rounded to 242 keys

Sale. 8

after some investigative work this one is involved in gambling

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1714435200/1714608000

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199651506031#!/compare/1714435200/1714521600

Untrace

Then was moved to the owners bot shortly after

Sale 9.

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977721610#!/compare/1715817600/1715990400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1715731200/1715904000

Looks to be Haunted Ghosts Salty Dog and 50 keys, going off of buy orders it would make the Twisted Topper 108 keys and going off of sellers it wouldn't make a difference as buyers are still higher

Sale 10.

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1715472000/1716422400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977721610#!/compare/1716163200/1716422400

looks to be bulk for the fallowing

Scorching Flames Sophisticated Smoker: https://backpack.tf/item/14446384874

Rising Ritual Taunt: The Victory Lap: https://backpack.tf/item/5247017464

Disco Beat Down Mooshanka: https://backpack.tf/item/11547776484

Sunbeams Familiar Fez: https://backpack.tf/item/932221509

Searing Plasma Soldier's Slope Scopers: https://backpack.tf/item/13759349814

Now item 4 is just chilling on MP

Lowest seller at 225 keys

Highest buyer 135 keys

Listings: https://imgur.com/a/8DGLAbJ

With a seller at 225 keys that caps the sales so I'm gonna ignore them

Taking 176-180 keys

Feedback is always welcomed