Sale 1:

Sold for 8 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178426383#!/compare/1722643200/1722729600 - Near ID: 14745306639

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1722643200/1722729600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Firearm%20Protector&at=2024-08-05T04:05:46.285Z - labelled as 7 keys + 36.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12197111296

8 keys match. Very likely that some metal went with the unusual as change. Taking Gladiator for granted here.

= 7.5 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040545240#!/compare/1719100800/1719273600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1719187200/1719273600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Firearm%20Protector&at=2024-06-26T03:49:08.471Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/13609576429

= 7 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 7 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325974441#!/compare/1718755200/1718841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389274250#!/compare/1718841600/1718928000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Firearm%20Protector&at=2024-06-21T03:49:08.471Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12212177790

Keys went towards the Peace Sign Fire Fighter on the seller’s end, so the previous owner of the Fire Fighter match with the first 7 keys on the buyer’s end.

Next movement in history went to the bot’s owner.

= 7 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31310;5;u265

$15.95, June 4th, 7th, July 28th, & August 11th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.67, June 4th

$1.65, June 7th

$1.74, July 28th

$1.80, August 11th

15.95/1.65 = 9.667, rounds to 9.5

15.95/1.67 = 9.551, rounds to 9.5

15.95/1.74 = 9.167, rounds to 9

15.95/1.8 = 8.861, rounds to 9

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826599022#!/compare/1716163200/1716249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040545240#!/compare/1716163200/1716249600

https://backpack.tf/item/13609576429

Bulk for keys

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146874608#!/compare/1719792000/1723420800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128968043#!/compare/1721001600/1721260800

https://backpack.tf/item/12994161445

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128968043#!/compare/1721260800/1721692800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190547207#!/compare/1720396800/1721433600

https://backpack.tf/item/12994161445

Most likely gambled

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190547207#!/compare/1721433600/1721520000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149824582#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400

https://backpack.tf/item/12994161445

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1715990400/1716076800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1715990400/1716076800

https://backpack.tf/item/12249283151

Bulk

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1719878400/1719964800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044473980#!/compare/1719792000/1719964800

https://backpack.tf/item/12249283151

6 keys match

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199028972562#!/compare/1717200000/1717286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057689222#!/compare/1717200000/1717286400

https://backpack.tf/item/12212177790

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057689222#!/compare/1717200000/1717286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325974441#!/compare/1717372800/1717459200

https://backpack.tf/item/12212177790

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198881314554#!/compare/1722384000/1722556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178426383#!/compare/1722470400/1722556800

https://backpack.tf/item/12197111296

Bulk for a medigun skin

https://backpack.tf/item/14353680365 - mannco/scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/13104071365 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12545895271 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/12239948874 - marketplace/gambled/mannco

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/RqdrR9P

https://backpack.tf/item/14573310864 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14434992557 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12197111296 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/13616740904 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12212177790 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/13609576429 - marketplace

Sales at:

7 (2x)

7.5

9 (marketplace, 2x)

9.5 (marketplace, 2x)

Seller at 9 is 2 months old. Excluding 9.5.

Buyers up to ~7.5 keys. There’s an abundance of sales at or below buy order prices, so I’ll keep 7.5 in the range, but exclude 7. Using 9 flat isn’t really ideal with the 2 month old seller at 9 anyway.

Taking 7.5-9.