Lets bring it down.

Gladiator Statistics: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Bone-Cut%20Belt&at=2024-08-17T21:56:20.828Z

BOUGHT

Past 30 days

1 @ 3 keys 6.66 ref (~3.1k)

1 @ 3 keys 30.77 ref (~3.55k)

So few sales that I’ll also look at mptf stats:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30531;6

3 sales at $6.79 in the last month (July 31 with keys @1.74 = ~3.9k, Aug 6 with keys @ 1.75 = ~3.9k, Aug 16 with keys at ~1.82 = ~3.75k). Taking an approx weekly average of keyprice for this.

3.1k sale is below one buy order (well, two, but both from the same person), but one buy order isn’t enough to toss out the lower end.

VERDICT

3.1-3.9k is a pretty wide range… but it’s more accurate than the current 7 key price. The midpoint (3.5k) is approximately where the non-mptf sale that isn't below buy orders lands, anyways.