Sale 1:

Sold for 23 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1723939200/1724025600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066742724#!/compare/1723939200/1724198400

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

= 23 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 19 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199733715239#!/compare/1721692800/1722297600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072999396#!/compare/1722211200/1722297600

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

= 19 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 17 keys + 30 ref (rounds to 18)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198378207723#!/compare/1723680000/1723766400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040907219#!/compare/1723680000/1723766400

https://backpack.tf/item/14523420794

= 18 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 18 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023229853#!/compare/1724284800/1724371200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198189451937#!/compare/1724284800/1724457600

https://backpack.tf/item/14523420794

= 18 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 17 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057954897#!/compare/1723939200/1724284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1724198400/1724284800

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

= 17 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165548985#!/compare/1717459200/1717718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199229047540#!/compare/1719273600/1720656000 - no compares for the trade

https://backpack.tf/item/14523420794

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199229047540#!/compare/1719273600/1720656000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1719446400/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/item/14523420794

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1720224000/1720310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854496201#!/compare/1720224000/1720310400

https://backpack.tf/item/14523420794

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854496201#!/compare/1723507200/1723593600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198378207723#!/compare/1723507200/1723593600

https://backpack.tf/item/14523420794

Most likely the keys and metal in the buyer’s backpack, though not much of it matches

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040907219#!/compare/1724025600/1724284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023229853#!/compare/1722729600/1724198400

https://backpack.tf/item/14523420794

Untraceable, auctioned

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071404674#!/compare/1721088000/1721174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331224889#!/compare/1721088000/1721174400

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Bulk for Scorching Alakablamicon + 5 keys

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331224889#!/compare/1721433600/1721520000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186930899#!/compare/1721433600/1721520000

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Bulk for keys

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186930899#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198981403984#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Bulk for Aussie Eyelander

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198981403984#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359390706#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359390706#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199733715239#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

8 keys match

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072999396#!/compare/1722988800/1723075200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134557291#!/compare/1722556800/1723075200

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Untraceable. Most likely sold for the two hats on the seller’s end, but can’t confirm

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134557291#!/compare/1723075200/1723161600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199370224715#!/compare/1722988800/1723161600

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Untraceable, may have sold for the hat on the buyer’s end. Once again, can’t confirm.

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199370224715#!/compare/1723507200/1724457600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1723507200/1723593600

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Untraceable

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066742724#!/compare/1724198400/1724284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057954897#!/compare/1723939200/1724284800

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

Bulk for Purple Energy Tyrantium Helmet

https://backpack.tf/item/10671512463 - mannco

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30362;5;u7

$49.99, July 12th & August 19th

https://backpack.tf/item/10196540246

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.69, July 12th

$1.84, August 19th

49.99/1.69 = 29.58, rounds to 30

49.99/1.84 = 27.168, rounds to 27

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/CP3Mdfe

https://backpack.tf/item/5713540832 - ~23.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13328554607 - ~24.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13013787079 - 25 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9043157144 - 54 keys

Sales at:

17

18 (2x)

19

23

Buyers at ~17 keys, excluding 17.

23 looks like a bit of an outlier, but it’s a pure sale, and the marketplace sales kinda support it. Keeping 23 in the range.

Taking 18-23.