Sale 1:

Sold for 3 keys + 28.11 ref on scrap.tf

Keys were ~57.05 ref at the time

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1720828800/1720915200 - Near ID: 14673738671

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146455646#!/compare/1649030400/1724544000

https://backpack.tf/item/5319826983

= 3.5 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 3 keys + negligible metal on scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1718150400/1718236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188491655#!/compare/1718150400/1718236800

https://backpack.tf/item/8136980945

= 3 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 3 keys (buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1720828800/1720915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199019129486#!/compare/1719532800/1722988800

https://backpack.tf/item/4148752782

= 3 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 2 keys + 20 ref

Keys were ~56.44 ref at the time

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198965250141#!/compare/1722902400/1723161600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036952412#!/compare/1722902400/1722988800

https://backpack.tf/item/9630617486

= 2.35 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 2 keys + 16.66 ref (buyer’s end)

Keys were ~57.88 ref at the time

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1718928000/1719014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198864525233#!/compare/1716940800/1719014400

https://backpack.tf/item/6980526431

= 2.3 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 9.55 ref?

Keys were ~48.22 ref at the time

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154186822#!/compare/1721865600/1725840000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1721779200/1721865600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Showstopper%20Taunt:%20The%20Proletariat%20Posedown&at=2024-09-09T13:19:03.875Z - labelled as 2 keys + 9.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/4452727123

Only 2 keys + 5.55 ref match, close enough. Should be fine to assume gladiator is correct here.

= 2.2 keys

Sale 7:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 8.44 ref

Keys were ~56.44 ref at the time

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198864525233#!/compare/1722988800/1723248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1723161600/1723248000

https://backpack.tf/item/6980526431

= 2.15 keys

Sale 8:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 4 ref

Keys were ~66.66 ref at the time

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258595884#!/compare/1718496000/1720656000 - Near ID: 14663375698

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1720569600/1720656000

https://backpack.tf/item/3913001835

= 2.05 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199169712040#!/compare/1722643200/1722729600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1722643200/1722729600

https://backpack.tf/item/14683213299

Untraceable, appears to have been a backpack buy

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159953339#!/compare/1720224000/1721174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1720656000/1720742400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Showstopper%20Taunt:%20The%20Proletariat%20Posedown&at=2024-09-09T13:19:03.875Z - labelled as 2 keys + 4 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/11994153295

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1718755200/1718841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198965250141#!/compare/1718755200/1719273600

https://backpack.tf/item/9630617486

Untraceable, missing info from history

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146455646#!/compare/1724544000/1724630400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1724457600/1724544000

https://backpack.tf/item/5319826983

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf. follows the ~3.5 key sale on scrap.tf.

Unusualified prior, untraceable bot flip afterwards.

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1725062400/1725148800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198425105766#!/compare/1725062400/1725148800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Showstopper%20Taunt:%20The%20Proletariat%20Posedown&at=2024-09-09T13:19:03.875Z - labelled as 2 keys + 45 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/4452727123

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164296876#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1722556800/1722643200

https://backpack.tf/item/4120725751

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1722988800/1723075200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199706009242#!/compare/1719705600/1723075200

https://backpack.tf/item/4120725751

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199706009242#!/compare/1719705600/1723075200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1722988800/1723075200

https://backpack.tf/item/4120725751

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1723161600/1723248000 - Near ID: 14772230480

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199447973300#!/compare/1723161600/1723248000

https://backpack.tf/item/4120725751

Sold with 10.44 ref for 3 keys?

It’s more than likely that more metal was involved, and some of the metal the buyer received in change went towards the items we seem them acquire after the trade.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199447973300#!/compare/1723593600/1723766400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199448106696#!/compare/1723680000/1723766400

https://backpack.tf/item/4120725751

Sold with ~1 key in items for Cursed Confinement Russian Arms Race

Would be better to price the arms race with this sale

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389324179#!/compare/1717632000/1718323200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199417438994#!/compare/1718236800/1718323200

https://backpack.tf/item/14386116350

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199417438994#!/compare/1718236800/1718323200 - Near ID: 14582401643

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1718236800/1718323200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Showstopper%20Taunt:%20The%20Proletariat%20Posedown&at=2024-09-09T13:19:03.875Z - labelled as 2 keys + 3 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/14386116350

2 keys match

https://backpack.tf/item/9937874554 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6803590249 - untraceable, buyer’s backpack unscanned at time of

trade, seller’s backpack won’t update for me

https://backpack.tf/item/4445271427 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/4440069561 - mannco

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/DutFkbE.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3908166542 - ~2.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5319826983 - ~2.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3913001835 - ~2.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3959543012 - ~2.75 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4369842454 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6940574435 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14386116350 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/11994153295 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12524426884 - marketplace

Sales at:

2.05

2.15

2.2

2.3

2.35

3 (2x)

3.5

The buyer of the 3.5 key sale re-sold back to scrap.tf (seen in #4), making the sale that already looks like an outlier invalid. Excluding 3.5.

Numerous sellers at ~2.7 keys, one of which is 3 months old. Excluding 3.

Buyers up to ~2.15 keys. There are a lot of sales at buy order prices, so I’m not going to exclude 2.15 keys. I will, however, exclude 2.05, as buyers well and truly exceed that value now.

Taking 2.15-2.35 keys.