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Sale 1:
Sold for Purple Confetti Starlight Sorcerer (Mini at 48.5 below) + 19 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115536664#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362263986#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
= 68 keys
Sale 2:
Sold for 40 keys + Frosty Flavours Wanderer’s Wool (Suggestion at 27)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094818081#!/compare/1720569600/1720656000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199413196561#!/compare/1720656000/1720915200
https://backpack.tf/item/14168748125
= 67 keys
Sale 3:
Sold for 65 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307602421#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098880809#!/compare/1724112000/1724457600
https://backpack.tf/item/13644330230
= 65 keys
Sale 4:
Sold for 65 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009089083#!/compare/1721433600/1721606400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354463983#!/compare/1721001600/1721433600
https://backpack.tf/item/13643179840
= 65 keys
Sale 5:
Sold for 63 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406138209#!/compare/1723852800/1723939200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070255861#!/compare/1723939200/1724025600
https://backpack.tf/item/14236392679
Gambled afterwards.
= 63 keys
Sale 6:
Sold for 61 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127773728#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207957543#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=The%20Bone%20Zone%20Mean%20Captain&at=2024-09-11T03:49:10.785Z - labelled as 61 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/14236392679
Gladiator confirms that this is the buyer, despite not showing up in the item’s history.
= 61 keys
Sale 7:
Sold for 60 keys via Scrap.tf auction
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406138209#!/compare/1722816000/1722902400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261149674#!/compare/1722729600/1722988800
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
= 60 keys
Sale 8:
Sold for 60 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1720483200/1720569600 - Near ID: 14661281109
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195420449#!/compare/1720569600/1720742400
https://backpack.tf/item/14434639926
= 60 keys
Sale 9:
Sold for 60 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380634252#!/compare/1725580800/1725667200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1725494400/1725580800
https://backpack.tf/item/13782484021
= 60 keys
Sale 10:
Sold for 59 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140305002#!/compare/1720396800/1720483200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199174775685#!/compare/1720137600/1720656000
https://backpack.tf/item/14325955785
= 59 keys
Sale 11:
Sold for 58 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072185247#!/compare/1724457600/1724544000 - Near ID: 14830731538
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272374007#!/compare/1724457600/1724544000
https://backpack.tf/item/13652543995
= 58 keys
Sale 12:
Sold for 58 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000 - Near ID: 14887081229
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000
https://backpack.tf/item/13652543995
= 58 keys
Sale 13:
Sold to a bot for 56 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275585998#!/compare/1725235200/1725321600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127773728#!/compare/1725235200/1725321600
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=The%20Bone%20Zone%20Mean%20Captain&at=2024-09-11T03:49:10.785Z - confirmed
https://backpack.tf/item/14236392679
= 56 keys
Sale 14:
Sold for 51 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027882174#!/compare/1720915200/1721001600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199128182851#!/compare/1720828800/1721001600
https://backpack.tf/item/14434639926
= 51 keys
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31385;5;u304
$130, June 16th
$125, July 5th, 13th, 19th, 31st, August 7th, 18th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, & 26th
$139.99, September 4th & 6th
$134.99, September 9th
Jesus christ.
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:
$1.65, June 16th
$1.68, July 5th
$1.69, July 13th
$1.72, July 19th
$1.74, July 31st
$1.75, August 7th
$1.85, August 18th
$1.84, August 19th, 23rd, 24th, & 26th
$1.88, September 4th
$1.87, September 6th & 9th
130/1.65 = 78.788, rounds to 79
125/1.68 = 74.405, rounds to 74
125/1.69 = 73.964, rounds to 74
125/1.72 = 72.674, rounds to 73
125/1.74 = 71.839, rounds to 72
125/1.75 = 71.429, rounds to 71
125/1.85 = 67.568, rounds to 68
125/1.84 = 67.935, rounds to 68 (4x)
139.99/1.88 = 74.463, rounds to 74
139.99/1.87 = 74.861, rounds to 75
134.99/1.87 = 72.187, rounds to 72
= 68 keys(5x)
= 71 keys
= 72 keys (2x)
= 73 keys
= 74 keys (3x)
= 75 keys
= 79 keys
Other Sales:
#1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027173997#!/compare/1721347200/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199718637830#!/compare/1721433600/1721520000
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
Untraceable
#2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199718637830#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115536664#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
Sold with Prismatic Haze Mannrobics for Nuts n Bolts Master’s Yellow Belt
Could technically be used here, but I’d prefer not to. Sales like this shouldn’t really be used unless as a last resort.
#3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362263986#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972510204#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
Untraceable, involves a Death at Dusk Berliner’s Bucket Helm
#4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972510204#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199698640879#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
Untraceable
#5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199698640879#!/compare/1721952000/1722038400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261751118#!/compare/1722038400/1722124800
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
Untraceable
#6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261751118#!/compare/1722297600/1722643200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1722556800/1722643200
https://backpack.tf/item/14673622642
Untraceable
#7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195420449#!/compare/1720742400/1720915200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027882174#!/compare/1720656000/1720742400
https://backpack.tf/item/14434639926
Untraceable
#8
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1724716800/1724803200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977721610#!/compare/1724716800/1724803200
https://backpack.tf/item/14434639926
Untraceable, some keys match
#9
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977721610#!/compare/1724803200/1724889600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1724716800/1724803200
https://backpack.tf/item/14434639926
Untraceable, 12 keys match
Next movement in this item’s history was most likely a marketplace sale
#10
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199375634143#!/compare/1720569600/1720656000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108841809#!/compare/1720569600/1720656000
https://backpack.tf/item/14327400646
Untraceable
#11
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1719532800/1719619200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140305002#!/compare/1719619200/1719705600
https://backpack.tf/item/14325955785
Untraceable. Most likely sold for most of the keys in the buyer’s end.
#12
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337480794#!/compare/1723680000/1723852800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800
https://backpack.tf/item/14236392679
Untraceable
#13
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406138209#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800
https://backpack.tf/item/14236392679
53 keys match, buyer’s end
#14
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207957543#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087121771#!/compare/1725753600/1725926400
https://backpack.tf/item/14236392679
Untraceable
#15
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122120776#!/compare/1724630400/1724716800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1724544000/1724630400
https://backpack.tf/item/14130480299
Untraceable
#16
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199274535875#!/compare/1720137600/1722384000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097845692#!/compare/1723420800/1724889600
https://backpack.tf/item/13782484021
Untraceable, most likely scammed. Very suspicious account.
#17
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097845692#!/compare/1723420800/1724889600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380634252#!/compare/1724630400/1724889600
https://backpack.tf/item/13782484021
Backpack buy
#18
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198317744461#!/compare/1724371200/1724630400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1724544000/1724716800
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=The%20Bone%20Zone%20Mean%20Captain&at=2024-09-11T03:49:10.785Z - labelled as 53 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/13739669209
Untraceable
#19
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1725580800/1725753600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1725494400/1725580800
https://backpack.tf/item/13739669209
Untraceable
#20
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199164819248#!/compare/1723075200/1723161600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248211874#!/compare/1724457600/1725408000
https://backpack.tf/item/13731700439
Untraceable
#21 & #22
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198974168794#!/compare/1720396800/1722470400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199583474180#!/compare/1721779200/1722470400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281642928#!/compare/1722384000/1722470400
https://backpack.tf/item/13672910471
Untraceable
#23
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199652290612#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000
https://backpack.tf/item/13652543995
Untraceable
#24
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210165403#!/compare/1719360000/1720137600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1720051200/1720137600
https://backpack.tf/item/13647900427
Untraceable
#25
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1720137600/1720224000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1720224000/1720310400
https://backpack.tf/item/13647900427
Untraceable
#26
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1720224000/1720310400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1720224000/1720310400
https://backpack.tf/item/13647900427
Untraceable
#27
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1721347200/1721433600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277482088#!/compare/1720310400/1721433600
https://backpack.tf/item/13647900427
Untraceable
#28
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074932486#!/compare/1723852800/1726012800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1725667200/1725753600
https://backpack.tf/item/13644388403
Untraceable, went to bot owner’s alt afterwards.
#29
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198416757988#!/compare/1719100800/1719273600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1719100800/1719187200
https://backpack.tf/item/13642162341
Untraceable
#30
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1719273600/1719360000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107550440#!/compare/1719360000/1719619200
https://backpack.tf/item/13642162341
Sold for some amount of keys. Some would’ve come from the taunt on the buyer’s end. Given the age of this sale, it’s most likely not worth investigating further.
#31
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198431135206#!/compare/1721174400/1722297600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1722211200/1722297600
https://backpack.tf/item/13640565323
Untraceable
#32
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1722816000/1722902400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068893163#!/compare/1722729600/1722902400
https://backpack.tf/item/13640565323
Untraceable
#33
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198974168794#!/compare/1720396800/1722470400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1722384000/1722470400
https://backpack.tf/item/13639874704
Untraceable
#34
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1722384000/1722470400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192442130#!/compare/1721952000/1723075200
https://backpack.tf/item/13639874704
Untraceable
#35
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272374007#!/compare/1724630400/1724716800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076344539#!/compare/1724630400/1724716800
https://backpack.tf/item/13652543995
Sold for 49 keys + Purple Confetti Brain-Warming Wear
Gambled afterwards.
https://i.imgur.com/2FBMbUZ.png - given sellers at ~7.5 on the Brain, as well as the nature of the sales we have, this sale is either gonna support the low-end, or be too low to be included.
https://backpack.tf/item/14178892717 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/13762504388 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/13722346839 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/13645069361 - marketplace
Minis:
Frosty Flavours Wanderer’s Wool:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/66e1aca12459fb6b42056fa7
Purple Confetti Starlight Sorcerer:
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31294;5;u7
$88.88, July 24th
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
Keys were $1.70 at the time.
88/1.7 = 51.765, rounds to 52
= 52 keys
Other Sales:
#1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198992529394#!/compare/1721088000/1721520000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198830120714#!/compare/1721347200/1721520000
https://backpack.tf/item/14668824414
Untraceable
#2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198830120714#!/compare/1721520000/1721606400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362263986#!/compare/1721433600/1721520000
https://backpack.tf/item/14668824414
Untraceable
#3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362263986#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115536664#!/compare/1721606400/1721692800
https://backpack.tf/item/14668824414
Bulk-ish for Bone Zone Mean Captain
Using there.
#4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115536664#!/compare/1721692800/1721779200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199480240111#!/compare/1721692800/1721779200
https://backpack.tf/item/14668824414
Bulk for Demonic Impaler Antarctic Eyewear
#5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199480240111#!/compare/1722816000/1722902400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1722816000/1722902400
https://backpack.tf/item/14668824414
Bulk/Untraceable
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/ArPrexI.png
https://backpack.tf/item/14668824414 - 45 keys
Gonna suck, but taking 45-52 as a mini. Obviously not gonna make a suggestion out of it.
________________________________________________________________________
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/rHq6p2I.png
https://backpack.tf/item/13652543995 - 70 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/13649307327 - 120 keys
Sales at:
51
56
58 (2x)
59
60 (3x)
61
63
65 (2x)
67
68 (6x, 5x marketplace)
71 (marketplace)
72 (2x marketplace)
73 (marketplace)
74 (3x marketplace)
75 (marketplace)
79 (marketplace)
With an abundance of pure sales, and a clear common trading range, we definitely should not be extending the range with the marketplace sales. We’re pricing this item in keys, and there are no pure sales above 70. The highest pure sale we have recorded is 65, and we can see it clearly waning afterwards, with the 2 non-pure sales above being mixed sales. Therefore, if we want to accurately price this item in the amount it sells for in keys, we should not be using the marketplace sales. Excluding 71+.
Buyers at 57, excluding 51 and 56.
Taking 58-68.