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~33 keys
distant drift
Unusual Brain-Warming Wear Distant Drift
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Here we go

sale one (yes its to me) 16 pure

https://backpack.tf/item/14729373564

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070866395#!/compare/1726531200/1726617600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970262340#!/compare/1726617600/1726790400

had buy order for 16 pure, bought for 16 pure


sale 2 looks like 18 pure

https://backpack.tf/item/14776736176

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199221743031#!/compare/1726617600/1726704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258168272#!/compare/1726617600/1726704000

I saw he had it listed for 25, looks like it sold for 18.


Sale 3 (same history as sale 1) Not sure, i assume its the 16 or 20 key grouping but i cant say for sure. will consider that range

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1726185600/1726272000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970262340#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

Not much to say here


Sale 4 (same history as sale 1 again)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199516139105#!/compare/1724025600/1724198400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000

its either 8.5 or 20, or it is untraceable. not including this.


sale 5 (same history as sale 1 again) 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199516139105#!/compare/1723939200/1724025600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088561849#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000

looks like a 15 pure sale


sale 6

https://backpack.tf/item/14744582187 (reference)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971916953#!/compare/1723334400/1723420800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061257432#!/compare/1723334400/1723420800

either mix or 15 pure, just for reference really.


sale 7 likely cash, not sure.

https://backpack.tf/item/14757883927

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031291859#!/compare/1723680000/1723939200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199539391520#!/compare/1723852800/1723939200


sale 8 untrace, maybe 11. just for reference.

same history as above

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199539391520#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199051618579#!/compare/1723852800/1723939200


16,16,18, older quicksales and untraceables.

going with 16 pure

    I forget how to check old classys. if someone can do that for sale 3 i would appreciate that.

    I'm not sure why 18 and 15 are being excluded here? Two non-bot buyers wouldn't counter two non-quicksales at 15 (Even moreso if the low sales of 8.5 and 11 are actually accurate). There's no sellers to regard 18 as an outlier.

      two 16s and one 18, one solid 15 and a possible 15 or mix, no reason to do a 15-18 range and the two solid sales at 16 make it a solid middle. Not being excluded just only a 3 keys difference with sales in the mid. plus there is currently a buyer at 16, just because its not a bot doesn't mean i should exclude it. Not supposed to set low end under buy orders i thought.

        Suggestions are never as black and white as that. There's enough uncertainty on your sales to prove that 16 flat won't cut it, so let me break it down.


        By excluding 15, you are excluding (potentially) four sales below 16, all in favor of two non-bot buyers, which notably are not guaranteed to keep their buy orders active, or even go through with the buy orders and break rules by declining. That's why while they're not invalid, they're not considered to be as strong counter-proof as the bot buyers would be.

        On the other end, there's no actual counter-proof for 18, besides the existance of the other low sales. Your point would be more valid if the high sale here was more discrepant size-wise, but that's not the case here. Not to mention, two of the possible sales here could either counter 18, or support 18 (either they're 16/20, or 8.5/20).


        The difference between going with 16 flat as opposed to 15-18, is that with a flat price, you're ignoring a vast number of sales in favor of one (confirmed) sale, while 15-18 captures a bigger spectrum of sales to account for the uncertainty being presented here. 15 on it's own is too low, and 18 on it's own is too high, but as a range they make up for eachother for a median of 16.5.


        You would have a much stronger case here if the proof for 16 was stronger. Be it by more buyers at 15-16 (bots or otherwise) to counter 15, sellers at 17-18 to counter 18, and (CONFIRMED) sales to strengthen 16 as it's own price point. But none of it is present here, so I believe it's better here to account for the uncertainty and go for a range. Since, if any of the confirmed sales were to be confirmed (or the buyers and sellers changed overnight), they could shift this suggestion in a completely different direction. Going with 15-18 is the best way to account for any possible change in this specific suggestion.


        I should add that most suggestions don't have to take this extreme direction. Most suggestions ARE as simple as "buyers above sale or sellers below, excluding". But it's never been a hard rule, and it can be overturned if the sales presented are substantial enough to make up for the counterpoints. You have to analyze all of the sales you've gathered (even the invalid ones) and come up with the best possible conclusion.

          Thank you very much for taking the time to explain all that, i will close this and repost with a range and better wording. I will use this for reference in the future as well. Cheers mate.

      Will you redo it or can I do it for you?

        was sleeping, i will be happy to redo