Thanks to Bentry Suster I had to redo this.

I've also been advised by Heidecker to not do this, because of the 19 active histories, but I'm stubborn.

So bare with me.

MP Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31371;5;u289

all MP sales over the last year (December 2023 until now) 14 sales out of 15, have been $27.95 (@ key price of $1.88) thats 14.86, rounding to 15.

Backpack.tf:

Most of these are bot shuffles but whatever, here goes.

https://backpack.tf/item/14680348802

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1721001600/1721260800

1 for 1 trade - Sakura Smoke Blast Bowl (~10.5) for Treasure Trove Blast Bowl

- Sold for ~10.5 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/14679578518 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199532866109#!/compare/1723680000/1727308800

- dunno what happened here, hard to narrow down as closest compare can only be made between august 15 and september 26.

https://backpack.tf/item/14442706925

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013248047#!/compare/1720656000/1720742400

and https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088878793#t14665119846

- Sold for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/14266101650

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054432412#!/compare/1723334400/1723420800

- Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14313131492 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198348455475#!/compare/1724284800/1724371200

and https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#t14819866102

- only common item is a Mann of the Seven Sees painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge

valued at ~4.03 keys. + 22 ref (leaving this out)

https://backpack.tf/item/13557624047

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199444232336#!/compare/1720310400/1720483200

-11 or 13 keys pure as matched with the seller. taking ~12.

https://backpack.tf/item/13534064157 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121006444#!/compare/1723852800/1723939200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1723852800/1723939200

-I cant find the keys??

https://backpack.tf/item/13455927282 (unusable)

-cant find this in the sellers inventory?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198348930769#!/compare/1720828800/1721174400

-buyer shows no pay?

https://backpack.tf/item/13364199574

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202896230#!/compare/1725580800/1725753600

- sold for 10 key 33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13363283845

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068999011#!/compare/1727308800/1727395200

-obtained together with 15 keys, Dead Presidents Airdog @8 keys and Orbiting Fire Swagman's Swatter @31 keys. for a gifted Green Energy Gnome Dome @ ~77keys

all the above (10.5 +8+31+15) =~64.5

- taking current price of 10.5keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13353244008 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089415757#!/compare/1725840000/1726099200

- maybe 4.5keys? (outlier)

https://backpack.tf/item/13352543554

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1724716800/1724803200

another 1 for 1 trade by the looks of it.

-Sakura Smoke Blast Bowl (~10.5) for Treasure Trove Blast Bowl

- 10.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13326265257 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309631624#!/compare/1721606400/1722038400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198393303870#!/compare/1721952000/1722038400

- cannot determine price as both inventories don't allign well.

https://backpack.tf/item/13297080506

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087806192#!/compare/1656892800/1727395200 no clue

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216451717#t14919330758 2 Strange Specialized Killstreak Flame Thrower @ 5.34 key (10.68 key)?

https://backpack.tf/item/13255752043 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060771258#!/compare/1722038400/1722384000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199591877083#t14716713036

https://backpack.tf/item/13249539659 (unusable)

this is a strange variant, so not counting this sale.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074856827#!/compare/1551052800/1726099200

https://backpack.tf/item/13244162859 (unusable)

untracable

https://backpack.tf/item/13242688300 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248576070#!/compare/1720224000/1721088000

https://backpack.tf/item/13240305082 (unusable)

Conclusion: too many damn bot shuffles.

Price/Sale Summary:

2 sales around 4.5 keys. which are outliers and probably quicksells.

5 sales of ~10.5 keys.

1 sale of 12 keys.

2 sales of 15 keys.

Creating a range of 10.5 - 15.

PS: I'm not redoing this.