Re-suggesting, found a better sale, sellers have dropped.

Sale 1:

Sold with ~3 keys in items for Serenus Lumen Killing Tree (10)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199333381263#!/compare/1723420800/1723507200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072852932#!/compare/1723420800/1723507200

https://backpack.tf/item/14582404590

= 7 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys + 29.33 ref (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1724544000/1724630400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069070698#!/compare/1724630400/1724889600

https://backpack.tf/item/11660603951

It’s likely the buyer sold the other items we see for metal and used that metal to contribute to the cost. Can’t confirm, but it would most likely barely make it round to 6 keys if it did anyways.

= 5.5 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31239;5;u3003

$14.95, August 1st

$14.99, October 16th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Can’t see key prices for August 1st, using August 2nd ($1.74)

https://i.imgur.com/BWPtOmn.png

$1.89, October 16th

14.95/1.74 = 8.592, rounds to 8.5

14.99/1.89 = 7.931, rounds to 8

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072864037#!/compare/1728259200/1728345600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1728259200/1728345600

https://backpack.tf/item/14582404590

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192632255#!/compare/1727395200/1728259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1728000000/1728086400

https://backpack.tf/item/12086973703

Untraceable, went to scrap.tf.

Followed by an untraceable purchase from scrap, then dumped to STN, then gambled.

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199522320441#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000

https://backpack.tf/item/11660603951

Bulk dump to STN from a potential scammer alt.

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072852932#!/compare/1723939200/1724112000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072864037#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000

https://backpack.tf/item/14582404590

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072864037#!/compare/1728259200/1728345600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1728259200/1728345600

https://backpack.tf/item/14582404590

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/14916311827 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/14398632082 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12842829220 - mannco

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/bErjLRk.png

https://backpack.tf/item/12435885736 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11967728850 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13767696374 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11919721729 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11246424338 - ~9.5 keys

Sales at:

5.5

7

8 (marketplace)

8.5 (marketplace)

Sellers at 7, excluding 8 and 8.5

Taking 5.5-7.