Credit to Extazi5.11

https://backpack.tf/item/3341230689

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1730505600/1730592000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096574145#!/compare/1729814400/1730764800

300Keys ( near id 15100404544 )

https://backpack.tf/item/11081072296

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073823378#!/compare/1726790400/1726876800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072725528#!/compare/1726790400/1726876800

Spelled Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Sniper Rifle (~132.5) + Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher (~53)

132.5+53=185.5 keys, rounding to 185

~~

Rifle mini (past 2 months):

https://backpack.tf/item/625355372

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112663388#!/compare/1728259200/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199065014226#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

106 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199065014226#!/compare/1729641600/1729728000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148983233#!/compare/1729641600/1729728000

https://backpack.tf/item/644945094

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144034994#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388792981#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388792981#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074192315#!/compare/1729900800/1730764800

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074192315#!/compare/1729900800/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388792981#!/compare/1730592000/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/item/642590255

145 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1727222400/1727308800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036647535#!/compare/1727222400/1727308800

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036647535#!/compare/1730764800/1730851200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134802811#!/compare/1723939200/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/item/640980132

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214031045#!/compare/1720483200/1728604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171257859#!/compare/1728518400/1728691200

https://backpack.tf/item/636174830

140 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161130473#!/compare/1726099200/1726185600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198849073854#!/compare/1720051200/1726185600

https://backpack.tf/item/636044657 mptf

No way of determining which one was exorcism for sure so excluding

https://backpack.tf/item/631698255

120 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969286813#!/compare/1725753600/1726012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199045841082#!/compare/1725840000/1726012800

then went to mptf but excluding since there's no way of determining which one was exorcism for sure

140 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294910330#!/compare/1730073600/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273300983#!/compare/1730073600/1730160000

190 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273300983#!/compare/1730419200/1730505600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040588109#!/compare/1730505600/1730678400

https://backpack.tf/item/631208443

87 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867208675#!/compare/1728691200/1728777600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056176130#!/compare/1728518400/1728777600

https://backpack.tf/item/647282210

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053875960#!/compare/1730332800/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049098788#!/compare/1729814400/1730937600

Sales at 87, 106, 120, 140, 140, 145, 190

Buyers at 102 keys, sellers at 160 and 170. 190 is an outlier for sure and 87 is below buyers, 106 was likely a quicksell too since it's close to buyers.

120-145 keys seems fair here. (median point: 132.5)

~~

Rocket Launcher mini: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Festivized%20Specialized%20Killstreak%20Australium%20Rocket%20Launcher&at=2024-11-07T21:48:09.234Z

Sales:

51 keys 28 ref @ 28/09/2024, 16:43 ~51

54 keys 40 ref @ 15/09/2024, 04:25 ~55

52 keys 45 ref @ 08/09/2024, 19:37 ~55

52 keys 50 ref @ 07/09/2024, 12:46 ~53

53 keys 40 ref @ 04/09/2024, 18:24 ~54

Buys:

50 keys 37 ref @ 25/09/2024, 05:12 ~51

52 keys 23 ref @ 14/09/2024, 19:35 ~52

51 keys 16 ref @ 08/09/2024, 12:15 ~51

51 keys 4 ref @ 05/09/2024, 16:21 ~51

51 keys 4 ref @ 01/09/2024, 11:29 ~51

Classies don't counter any of these values so going with a full range of 51-55 keys (mean value 53)

(provided by Mindacos) 3 more sales for the Rifle:

Sold for 191 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144034994#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

Sold for 160 Keys*

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199191939719#!/compare/1723334400/1723420800

*This sale is over 2 months old, which is likely why you weren't able to find it.

Sold for $369.99 on Marketplace (~196 Keys)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://backpack.tf/item/636044657

If we actually don't make 190 and 106 outliers, the sniper's median comes out to 148 Keys, which seems to be more in-line with the common ~140 sales. 148 + 53 will make the sale come to ~201, which rounded to 200 would make for a nicer range of 200-300 here.