https://backpack.tf/item/12257118688

Dumped to STN, 24.44 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194263363#!/compare/1728864000/1728950400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1728864000/1728950400

7 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197973240066#!/compare/1728432000/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/item/12182314332

~6.5 keys to a bot:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198389755995#!/compare/1726099200/1726272000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199674417290#!/compare/1726185600/1726272000

25 keys match, was likely bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199674417290#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1726185600/1726272000

Dumped to STN, no match:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1727654400/1727740800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090310123#!/compare/1727740800/1727827200

https://backpack.tf/item/7532724127 withdrawn from MPTF

Backpack purchase/bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009471724#!/compare/1728000000/1728086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1728000000/1728086400

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1728086400/1728172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060894015#!/compare/1727049600/1728345600

https://backpack.tf/item/6467982063

Bulk for Dead Presidents Polar Bear:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210489471#!/compare/1724976000/1725148800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033547170#!/compare/1725062400/1725148800

6 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033547170#!/compare/1725062400/1725148800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356750013#!/compare/1725062400/1725235200

~~

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30921;5;u3088

October 8: $19.99/1.91=10.47 ~10.5 keys

2 sellers at $18.99 (~11 keys)

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Runner%27s%20Rhythm?filter=Marigold+Ritual no sellers

Sales at 6, 6.5, 7, 10.5

6 and 6.5 are below buyers. 7 seems a bit low due to buyers at 6.81 but we can't ignore the lower sales although one was a dump.

Going with 7-10.5 (rounded to the nearest 0.5 since the median is below 10)