Sale 1:

Sold for 120 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343328308#!/compare/1730246400/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977601995#!/compare/1730246400/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/item/14081449286

= 120 keys

Sale 2:

Most likely sold for ~120 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025374641#!/compare/1729728000/1729814400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198245940978#!/compare/1729728000/1729900800

https://backpack.tf/item/15010445144

Some keys on the buyer’s end don’t match with the seller. Some match with another item the seller bought later, some don’t. However, given the nature of the buyer’s end, it looks a lot like this was 121 keys. For the sake of uncertainty, I will round this to 120, which also matches the other sale.

= 120 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 120 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1729987200/1730073600 - Near ID: 15073801885

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094365132#!/compare/1729987200/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/item/15001271491

= 120 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 115 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199307374254#!/compare/1728864000/1728950400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119423139#!/compare/1728950400/1729123200

https://backpack.tf/item/14960762188

Item histories may have been bugging out around this time, don’t remember if it was happening this early in October. Keys on the buyer’s end appear to have gone to a banned account, most likely through a cash trading site or something. Similarly, different keys the seller got on that day went to the same banned account. I’m willing to call this correct based on that info and the keys we see on the buyer’s end.

= 115 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 70 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1728518400/1728604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015031926#!/compare/1728345600/1728777600

https://backpack.tf/item/14138957290

= 70 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046580198#!/compare/1730937600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199218231854#!/compare/1730937600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271508598#!/compare/1730073600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/item/15038065819

Untraceable. I’m assuming one of the two accounts owns the bot here. Nothing shows up on gladiator.tf.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349359281#!/compare/1729382400/1729814400 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1729987200/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/item/15001271491

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198442735099#!/compare/1729296000/1730419200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082464434#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/item/14989706330

SCM. Looking at the graph on the SCM, it looks like they sold this for ~20 keys worth at best.

https://i.imgur.com/x3aQ0ge.png

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091316855#!/compare/1731196800/1731283200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335358415#!/compare/1731283200/1731456000

https://backpack.tf/item/14267403813

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052848348#!/compare/1728518400/1728604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114335037#!/compare/1728604800/1728691200

https://backpack.tf/item/14170350823

Sold for 90 keys + Uncraftable Heavy Rain Schadenfreude

No sales on the Schadenfreude.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199073366292#!/compare/1729123200/1731369600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252393844#!/compare/1729814400/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/item/14096425582

Untraceable

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31413;5;u3183

$300, October 23rd

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were $1.89

300/1.89 = 158.73, rounding to 160 keys.

= 160 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/JrHKs7g.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14997752658 - 300 keys

Sales at:

70

115

120 (3x)

160 (marketplace)

70 is countered by current buyers. Excluding 70.

1 buyer at 150, next buyers at 90-100. Absolutely can not exclude all those cheaper sales with the one buyer alone, though they will support 160 being in the range, despite the length from other sales.

Taking 115-160 keys.