Sale 1:

Sold for 6 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730160000/1730246400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070496601#!/compare/1727395200/1730246400

https://backpack.tf/item/14934249958

Manually searching item IDs shows 6 keys going to the seller:

https://backpack.tf/item/15082289492

https://backpack.tf/item/15082289500

https://backpack.tf/item/15082289506

https://backpack.tf/item/15082289513

https://backpack.tf/item/15082289518

https://backpack.tf/item/15082289525

This matches with their listing at the time:

https://i.imgur.com/T6PTXw5.png

Calling it at 6.

= 6 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882886230#!/compare/1731628800/1731715200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062075870#!/compare/1731628800/1731801600

https://backpack.tf/item/14023735700

= 6 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093695596#!/compare/1732060800/1732147200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967159739#!/compare/1732060800/1732147200

https://backpack.tf/item/5186801939

= 6 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162053878#!/compare/1731715200/1732320000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219027272#!/compare/1731628800/1731715200

https://backpack.tf/item/14337984669

= 4 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 30 ref (~3.5 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272131806#!/compare/1729728000/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1729987200/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/item/14934249958

= 3.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219027272#!/compare/1731801600/1731888000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059978313#!/compare/1731542400/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/item/14337984669

Bulk for keys

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354704348#!/compare/1729468800/1730592000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199539391520#!/compare/1729382400/1729468800

https://backpack.tf/item/13981487767

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280862378#!/compare/1729987200/1730246400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132599934#!/compare/1729641600/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/item/13918747096

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255440803#!/compare/1729382400/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107045156#!/compare/1732147200/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/item/13881634971

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107045156#!/compare/1732147200/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1732147200/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/item/13881634971

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035464165#!/compare/1729987200/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1729900800/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/item/7190315415

Bulk/Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1730073600/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310972287#!/compare/1729987200/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/item/7190315415

Bulk-ish for ~8 keys. Not gonna matter here since the sales we have are gonna cover either end of the seller and buyer end.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993652283#!/compare/1730160000/1731542400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385727483#!/compare/1731024000/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/item/5445294391

SCM, too many sales on the SCM to tell which this was exactly.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199367737652#!/compare/1730160000/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1730678400/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/item/5300540231

Bulk-ish

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071670543#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198314683565#!/compare/1729036800/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/item/5252514950

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132176657#!/compare/1729468800/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139994804#!/compare/1729814400/1729900800

https://backpack.tf/item/5221530101

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273732193#!/compare/1729900800/1730505600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199160426208#!/compare/1730332800/1730419200

https://backpack.tf/item/5188408744

Untraceable

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30816;5;u3183

$19.99, November 3rd

This’ll end up being a little more than 10 keys, which is too high here.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/AzFPsjU.png

https://backpack.tf/item/13881634971 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5300540231 - ~6.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5188408744 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13981487767 - 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5237609406 - 15 keys

Sales at:

3.5

4

6 (3x)

Given the consistent buy order price of 3 keys + 30 ref for about a month (Sale 5, ~30th October to now), and the fact that the bot that bought one for ~3.5 keys bought another very recently (#5), only this time not being traceable, I will be including 3.5 into the range here. We’ve also seen other bots get this amongst other items, where individually they would’ve most likely been valued at ~3.5 keys (#7 & #9).

Taking 3.5-6 keys.