Time Warp Lucha

Thank you for all your help, Lemons! Anything else I can do, please let me know! :)

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/1701068996

Sale #1

Bulk sale-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1726099200/1726358400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

Sale #2

Sold for a It's A Secret To Everybody Big Elfin Deal (350) + a Stare From Beyond Das Hazmattenhatten (930 keys) + a Time Warp Large Luchadore (1400) - using for Knifestorm Mining Light

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

Proof of Sale: https://gyazo.com/80ca3f07f94bb0cd8c8ce3226d18b5b1

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/674275c9b0a1a9530a09506c - Secret Elfin Deal Mini

Sale #3

huge bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050509345#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/item/13526963065 - Treasure Trove Herald's Helm

https://backpack.tf/item/7259589219 - Omniscient Orb Herald's Helm

https://backpack.tf/item/9314311369 - Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Wrench

https://backpack.tf/item/9217670879 - Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Tomislav

https://backpack.tf/item/14986770502 - Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Tomislav

https://backpack.tf/item/11726370225 - Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Ambassador

https://backpack.tf/item/14432196588 - Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Rancho Relaxo Unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/item/14938458549 - Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Rancho Relaxo Unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/item/13941419363 - Legacy Logo Taunt: The Balloonibouncer

https://backpack.tf/item/13679270267 - Heavy Rain Taunt: Borrowed Bones

https://backpack.tf/item/14328081769 - Hot Professional Killstreak Kiln and Conquer Scattergun (Minimal Wear)

802 keys

https://imgur.com/a/WdmKfGv

Thank you DJ Kush!

Minis:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/67427476e2cecc7f600d57aaccccccc - Treasure Trove Herald's Helm

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/674274dd6564c7e6e405b2bb - Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Rancho Relaxo Unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/674275095b312bada00a9d81 - Legacy Logo Taunt: The Balloonibouncer

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6742753b1d0ea9bad100a75a - Heavy Rain Taunt: Borrowed Bones

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Treasure Trove Herald's Helm Mini

Item 1 - https://backpack.tf/item/13382730503

Sale 1 - 150 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133319499#!/compare/1723766400/1723939200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1723852800/1723939200

Item 2 - https://backpack.tf/item/13526963065

Sale 1 - Bulk for Time Warp Lucha

Taking 150 keys flat.

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Omniscient Orb Herald's Helm Mini

Item 1 - https://backpack.tf/item/7259589219

Sale 1 - Bulk for Time Warp Lucha

No other movement. Buyers at 158.75 keys.

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As far as Aussies go, i'm not sure if I just take the price of them outright, if I take them at buyers price, or if I have to mini each one. Some clarity on that would be awesome, please! Thank you! :)

Wrench - buyers at 40.85 keys

x2 Tomislav - buyers at 39.54 keys

Ambassador - buyers at 18.71 keys

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Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Rancho Relaxo Unusualifier Mini

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Non-Craftable%20Unusual%20Taunt:%20Rancho%20Relaxo%20Unusualifier&at=2024-11-11T02:13:52.942Z

Item 1 - https://backpack.tf/item/14891944094

Sale 1 - bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199051618579#!/compare/1725321600/1725408000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1725321600/1725408000

Sale 2 - untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1725753600/1726012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1725926400/1726012800

Sale 3 - 18 keys as per gladiator.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1726704000/1726790400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1726704000/1726790400

Item 2 - https://backpack.tf/item/14825926307

Sale 1 - untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199051618579#!/compare/1724198400/1724284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1724198400/1724284800

Sale 2 - bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1724284800/1724371200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1724284800/1724371200

Sale 3 - 18 keys as per gladiator.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1726790400/1726704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1726704000/1726790400

Item 3 - https://backpack.tf/item/15060407190

Sale 1 - 16 keys 5 ref matches as per gladiator.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049857603#!/compare/1729814400/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199305838162#!/compare/1729641600/1729814400

Sale 2 - moved to main?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199305838162#!/compare/1729814400/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395837984#!/compare/1729728000/1729987200

Item 4 - https://backpack.tf/item/15047611085

Sale 1 - 16 keys 5 ref bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198849016315#!/compare/1729296000/1729382400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199305838162#!/compare/1729382400/1729468800

Sale 2 - moved to main?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199305838162#!/compare/1729641600/1729814400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395837984#!/compare/1729728000/1729987200

Item 5 - https://backpack.tf/item/15023234217

Sale 1 - 16 keys 5 ref bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206853525#!/compare/1718755200/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199305838162#!/compare/1728864000/1729036800

Sale 2 - moved to main?

Item 6 - https://backpack.tf/item/15117539318

Sale 1 - looks like part of bulk trade

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199051618579#!/compare/1731024000/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130707664#!/compare/1731110400/1731196800

Two months ago, had two sales at 18 keys

Last month, had three sales at 16 keys, 5 ref = 16.08 keys.

Item 7 - https://backpack.tf/item/14999544013

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198239646704#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199375634143#!/compare/1729296000/1729468800

Item 8 - https://backpack.tf/item/15019413484

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340342204#!/compare/1730851200/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199520998619#!/compare/1730851200/1730937600

Item 9 - https://backpack.tf/item/15007881568

Sale 1 - 15 keys 9 ref = 15.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061095697#!/compare/1729641600/1729728000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014914678#!/compare/1729641600/1729814400

Item 10 - https://backpack.tf/item/14432196588

Sale 1 - 22 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010962615#!/compare/1727913600/1728259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050509345#!/compare/1728000000/1728259200

MARKETPLACE:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/9258;5;uncraftable;td-1115

8/19 1 @ $45 Key avg = 1.84 = 24.45

8/21 1 @ $45 Key avg = 1.84 = 24.45

9/10 1 @ $44.49 Key avg = 1.88 = 23.66 => 23.65

9/22 1 @ $44.49 Key avg = 1.87 = 23.79 =>23.8

9/23 1 @ $44.49 Key avg = 1.87 = 23.79 =>23.8

9/29 1 @ $44.49 Key avg = 1.88 = 23.66 => 23.65

10/3 1 @ $44.49 Key avg = 1.88 = 23.66 => 23.65

10/5 1 @ $44.49 Key avg = 1.89 = 23.53 => 23.5

10/7 1 @ $44.49 Key avg = 1.92 = 23.17 => 23.15

10/12 2 @ $54.99 Key avg = 1.92 = 28.64 => 28.65

10/15 1 @ $50 Key avg = 1.89 = 26.45

10/17 1 @ $54.98 Key avg = 1.89 = 29.08 => 29.05

10/31 1 @ $54.43 Key avg = 1.88 = 28.95

11/2 1 @ $54.43 Key avg = 1.88 = 28.95

Sellers start at 15.34 keys, buyers start at 10 keys in classifieds.

Not really sure what my range here should be. I'm thinking of excluding everything below buyers and taking a range of 16 keys - 29 keys with an average of 22.5 keys. I'm not too keen on a range this wide, but I think it would be more accurate since the higher end has been all of the most recent sales.

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Legacy Logo Taunt: The Balloonibouncer Mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30763;5;u3162

8/29 1 @ $9.25 Key avg = 1.84 = 5.02 => 5

9/11 1 @ $8.75 Key avg = 1.88 = 4.65

Item 1 - https://backpack.tf/item/13941419363

Sale 1 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199319635474#!/compare/1727654400/1728172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050509345#!/compare/1728172800/1728259200

Sale 2 - bulk for TW Lucha

Item 2 - https://backpack.tf/item/12153210326

Sale 1 - barely in date, untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1723507200/1723593600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048792033#!/compare/1722816000/1724976000

Item 3 - https://backpack.tf/item/7670809193

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111082769#!/compare/1723334400/1723507200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199406020545#!/compare/1721692800/1723593600

Sale 2 - dump to bot for 2 keys, 50 ref (2.85 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199406020545#!/compare/1723593600/1724284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1724198400/1724284800

No other movements.

Taking range of 4-5 keys

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Heavy Rain Taunt: Borrowed Bones Mini

Item 1 - https://backpack.tf/item/13679270267

Sale 1 - not sure what he traded for, x = Heavy Rain Taunt: Borrowed Bones + Heavy Rain Taunt: The Table Tantrum

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116849874#!/compare/1728604800/1728691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050509345#!/compare/1728432000/1728950400

Then Drawdown > DJ Kush was TW Lucha bulk

DJ Kush > mp.tf bot

Then sold on mp.tf

Item 2 - https://backpack.tf/item/14743103395

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080394134#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056506661#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800

Sale 2 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841648423#!/compare/1725321600/1729123200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056506661#!/compare/1728950400/1729123200

Item 3 - https://backpack.tf/item/14623422337

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116848524#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065855850#!/compare/1724025600/1724112000

Item 4 - https://backpack.tf/item/14154364113

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198842559673#!/compare/1728518400/1728691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054945991#!/compare/1728604800/1728691200

Item 5 - https://backpack.tf/item/13788755987

Sale 1 - WHY CAN'T I FIGURE OUT WHAT THEY'RE SELLING FOR XD

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145508489#!/compare/1724544000/1725321600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080394134#!/compare/1725321600/1725235200

Sale 2 - 2 keys trace using near ID '14893791687'

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080394134#!/compare/1725926400/1726012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019418317#!/compare/1725926400/1726012800

Sale 3 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019418317#!/compare/1726012800/1726099200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071996461#!/compare/1726012800/1726099200

Sale 4 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071996461#!/compare/1726012800/1726099200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231855616#!/compare/1725753600/1726272000

Sale 5 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231855616#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111658162#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

Item 6 - https://backpack.tf/item/13679270267

Sale 1 - 11 keys match histories

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116849874#!/compare/1728518400/1728604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050509345#!/compare/1728432000/1728950400

https://backpack.tf/item/10175736810

https://backpack.tf/item/13652744608

https://backpack.tf/item/12553005985

https://backpack.tf/item/13911951985

https://backpack.tf/item/6830135964

https://backpack.tf/item/13144291253

https://backpack.tf/item/13912042190

https://backpack.tf/item/12926950305

https://backpack.tf/item/13686836502

https://backpack.tf/item/14504975807

https://backpack.tf/item/10446800835

Sale 2 - bulk for TW Lucha

Sale 3 - movement to mp.tf bot then to Angel, untrace

Item 7 - https://backpack.tf/item/13659522295

Sale 1 - Obnoxious Confetti Taunt: The Travel Agent + Heavy Rain Taunt: Borrowed Bones for ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116848524#!/compare/1728086400/1728172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097337164#!/compare/1648080000/1729987200

Item 8 - https://backpack.tf/item/13656156545

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072186001#!/compare/1726531200/1727740800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142757492#!/compare/1726876800/1727740800

Item 9 - https://backpack.tf/item/13643430959

Sale 1 - ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199216794848#!/compare/1727222400/1727395200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069162770#!/compare/1727222400/1727395200

Sale 2 - 4 keys trace using near ID '15078589636'

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069162770#!/compare/1729987200/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730073600/1730160000

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31382;5;u3183

11/6 1 @ $11.96 Key avg = 1.86 = 6.43 => 6.45

Total sales:

2 keys

4 keys

6.45 keys

11 keys

bulk trades

Buyers start at 4 keys, sellers starting at ~10 keys. Will exclude 2 and 4 keys since below buyers, and exclude 11 keys since above sellers and the trade seems incomplete to me. Taking 6.45 keys flat.

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Hot Professional Killstreak Kiln and Conquer Scattergun (Minimal Wear) Mini

Item 1 - https://backpack.tf/item/14328081769

Sale 1 - bulk for TW Lucha

Marketplace sale from DJ Kush to twitch.tv/blessedviva

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/200;15;u701;w2;pk296;kt-3

10/17 1 @ $199.99

7 day key avg = 1.89

199.99 / 1.89 = 105.81 = 106 keys

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Starting from the top and working our way down, we got:

150 + 158.75 (buyers) + 40.85 (buyers) + 39.54 (buyers) + 39.54 (buyers) + 18.71 (buyers) + 22.5 + 4.5 + 6.45 + 106 + 820 = 1406.84 = 1400 keys

Okay, I think I got everything from the other suggestions. If I missed something, please please PLEASE let me know! All credit goes to Lemons and Explocivo! :) Thank you so much!