Sale 1:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068780534#!/compare/1729814400/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184612889#!/compare/1729468800/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/item/5746478704

= 12 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928937383#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967159739#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/item/5373837748

= 7 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 6 keys (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1728691200/1728777600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882886230#!/compare/1728691200/1728777600

https://backpack.tf/item/5099471602

= 6 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354034202#!/compare/1729209600/1729814400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1729728000/1729814400

https://backpack.tf/item/14996611909

= 3 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010848227#!/compare/1731456000/1731542400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117306150#!/compare/1731456000/1731628800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Heavy%20Rain%20Taunt:%20The%20Carlton&at=2024-11-24T05:33:22.164Z - labelled as 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15111814661

Untraceable, some metal matches

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361969888#!/compare/1727913600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199129641982#!/compare/1731283200/1732060800

https://backpack.tf/item/15055443829

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007904960#!/compare/1731888000/1732060800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071596434#!/compare/1731888000/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/item/15048808017

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1729728000/1729814400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198447631644#!/compare/1729814400/1729900800

https://backpack.tf/item/14996611909

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009914215#!/compare/1730851200/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1730851200/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/item/5366095135

Untraceable, gambled prior

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1730937600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310972287#!/compare/1730937600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/item/5366095135

Untraceable

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/dTa82qf.png

https://backpack.tf/item/15111814661 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5099471602 - 15 keys

Sales at:

3

6

7

12

There are a couple instances of trades that would suggest this should be much lower than the sales we have, such as the bot dump in #5, and the re-sale in #6 that would’ve most likely been ~4 keys - https://i.imgur.com/edhpx0s.png

Given this info, I will not be including 3 into the range, but I will be calling 12 an outlier. Excluding 3 and 12.

Taking 6-7 keys.