Sale 1:

Sold for 5 keys + a Tour of Duty Ticket

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199083195979#!/compare/1728777600/1728864000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139560938#!/compare/1728777600/1728864000

https://backpack.tf/item/9984697240

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Tour%20of%20Duty%20Ticket&at=2024-10-14T05:50:19.915Z - Tickets were selling for ~27.6 ref at the time, keys recently priced at 56 at the time

27.6/56 = 0.493, rounds to 0.5 keys

= 5.5 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111648936#!/compare/1730592000/1730678400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056176130#!/compare/1730246400/1730764800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Heavy%20Rain%20Taunt:%20Spin-to-Win&at=2024-11-29T05:48:43.231Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/9546609435

= 5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 5 keys (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198996574752#!/compare/1730160000/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198998016771#!/compare/1729555200/1730246400

https://backpack.tf/item/11083289537

= 5 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1731024000/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044557428#!/compare/1731024000/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/item/13931978765

= 4 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 3 keys + 31 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730505600/1730592000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048935510#!/compare/1730160000/1730592000

https://backpack.tf/item/13915784638

Key prices were fluctuating a little bit at this point, going to round this to 3.5 keys.

= 3.5 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to STN for 2 keys + 39.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171207933#!/compare/1730160000/1730592000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1730505600/1730592000

https://backpack.tf/item/9546609435

= 2.65 keys

Sale 7:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 30 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798066767#!/compare/1730332800/1730419200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730332800/1730419200

https://backpack.tf/item/13915784638

= 2.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041186431#!/compare/1730937600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730851200/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/item/13931978765

Untraceable, 30 ref matches. Most likely 2 keys + 30 ref

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103465271#!/compare/1732060800/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967159739#!/compare/1732060800/1732147200

https://backpack.tf/item/13916226054

https://i.imgur.com/p2Upv1A.png - was listed for ~5 keys

Untraceable, 10 ref matches

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035013576#!/compare/1729814400/1729900800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199092738010#!/compare/1729814400/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/item/13915784638

Bulk

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199092738010#!/compare/1730332800/1730419200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798066767#!/compare/1730332800/1730419200

https://backpack.tf/item/13915784638

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199095286900#!/compare/1730937600/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730851200/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/item/12404946696

Untraceable, 30 ref matches. Most likely 2 keys + 30 ref again.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1731542400/1731628800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157642475#!/compare/1731369600/1731715200

https://backpack.tf/item/12404946696

Untraceable, SCM involved.

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119097038#!/compare/1732233600/1732320000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198401158635#!/compare/1731283200/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/item/10129326512

Untraceable

Sellers:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31161;5;u3183

https://backpack.tf/item/14023970468 - $9 (~5 keys)

Sales at:

2.5

2.65

3.5

4

5 (2x)

5.5

Going to tighten the range, and get rid of the ~2.5 key sales (went to buy orders), and the 5.5 key sale (above marketplace seller). I’ll also exclude 2.65, which sold in a day.

Taking 3.5-5 keys.