Sale 1:

Sold for 19 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1725667200/1725753600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199599703#!/compare/1725580800/1725753600

https://backpack.tf/item/14320973726

= 19 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 19 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060189392#!/compare/1731715200/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074847760#!/compare/1731974400/1732060800

https://backpack.tf/item/13309425562

= 19 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 18 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1728172800/1728259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911471#!/compare/1728086400/1728259200

https://backpack.tf/item/14320973726

= 18 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 17 keys + 65.33 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045466865#!/compare/1728432000/1728518400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125443371#!/compare/1728432000/1728518400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Bubble%20Breeze%20Brimmed%20Bootlegger&at=2024-12-01T23:26:39.373Z - labelled as 17 keys + 65.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13544146565

We can see the exact amount of metal matching + some keys. Gonna assume gladiator is correct here, doesn’t affect the suggested price much regardless.

= 18 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 17 keys + 65.33 ref…again

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1728432000/1728518400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1728432000/1728518400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Bubble%20Breeze%20Brimmed%20Bootlegger&at=2024-12-01T23:26:39.373Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/13544146565

Next in history is the bot’s owner, seems like

= 18 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for 18 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102539721#!/compare/1730678400/1730851200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199384067419#!/compare/1730246400/1730851200

https://backpack.tf/item/13268882949

= 18 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200 - Near ID: 15050315003

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094365132#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/item/13243831811

Buyer’s side shows 24 keys going to the same STN bot, but the first 8 have very different IDs (Ending in ~334XXX, instead of 315XXX). It’s also likely some metal was involved, but I doubt there was enough to make this round to 17.

= 16 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199599703#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1725667200/1725753600

https://backpack.tf/item/14320973726

Untraceable, follows the 19 key purchase

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911471#!/compare/1728259200/1728432000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130707664#!/compare/1728172800/1728259200

https://backpack.tf/item/14320973726

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130707664#!/compare/1728518400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1728604800/1728691200

https://backpack.tf/item/14320973726

Bulk/untraceable, probably gambled

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071252327#!/compare/1728086400/1728172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049787874#!/compare/1728172800/1730851200

https://backpack.tf/item/13377003909

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827347982#!/compare/1728000000/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059382847#!/compare/1728000000/1729296000

https://backpack.tf/item/13349629505

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1725235200/1725321600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126632928#!/compare/1724889600/1725408000

https://backpack.tf/item/13341623575

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009776093#!/compare/1726358400/1727049600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1726444800/1726531200

https://backpack.tf/item/13322696485

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1726444800/1726531200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199215748094#!/compare/1726444800/1726531200

https://backpack.tf/item/13322696485

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287524626#!/compare/1732060800/1732752000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1732665600/1732752000

https://backpack.tf/item/13310763772

Untraceable/Bulk

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111878875#!/compare/1726272000/1726444800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054198170#!/compare/1726358400/1726444800

https://backpack.tf/item/13293484711

Bulk for Treasure Trove Lumbercap

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062047395#!/compare/1726099200/1726444800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102539721#!/compare/1725926400/1726185600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Bubble%20Breeze%20Brimmed%20Bootlegger&at=2024-12-01T23:26:39.373Z - labelled as 16 keys + 54.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13268882949

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199384067419#!/compare/1731110400/1731196800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882886230#!/compare/1731024000/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/item/13268882949

Untraceable

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882886230#!/compare/1731024000/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144841747#!/compare/1730592000/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/item/13268882949

Untraceable, 6 keys match

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304226833#!/compare/1729209600/1730937600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199490635520#!/compare/1729296000/1729382400

https://backpack.tf/item/13243831811

Untraceable

#15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199490635520#!/compare/1729555200/1729728000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/item/13243831811

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/14472992151 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/13342296416 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/13242667481 - mannco

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31366;5;u290

$39.99, September 8th

$44.99, October 7th, 14th, & 29th

These sales will exceed current sellers. The September one will be around 21 keys, and the others much more. Excluding them.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/E9HjIMm.png

https://backpack.tf/item/13244385313 - 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13244872151 - 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13310763772 - ~18 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14608473710 - 19 keys

Sales at:

16

18 (4x)

19 (2x)

Few sellers at 17-19. I don’t want to stray too far from those. I’ll exclude 19, but keep 18.

Taking 16-18 keys.