Sale 1:

Sold for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161355616#!/compare/1732579200/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967159739#!/compare/1733097600/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/item/3549723414

= 6 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730592000/1730678400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056176130#!/compare/1730246400/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/item/13846693552

= 5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082405131#!/compare/1731024000/1731110400 - Near ID: 15116576260

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049285055#!/compare/1730937600/1731024000

https://backpack.tf/item/2689372211

= 4 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199403619231#!/compare/1729987200/1731542400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1730160000/1730246400

https://backpack.tf/item/13846693552

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002689523#!/compare/1731369600/1731888000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130707664#!/compare/1731628800/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/item/5101290174

Untraceable, probably gambled

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212703000#!/compare/1730505600/1730592000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040965652#!/compare/1730419200/1730505600

https://backpack.tf/item/3446207247

Most likely backpack buy

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1120;5;u3183

$39.99, October 27th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were $1.89

39.99/1.87 = 21.385, rounds to 21 keys.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/D3tNZGU.png

https://backpack.tf/item/15058870910 - 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3446207247 - marketplace

Sales at:

4

5

6

21 (marketplace)

Buyer at ~5 keys. With limited sales above this value, I’ll exclude 4, but keep 5 in the range.

21 is a large outlier, excluding 21.

Taking 5-6 keys.