Sale 1:

Sold for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054722733#!/compare/1729468800/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967159739#!/compare/1729987200/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/item/11984894372

= 6 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199444064140#!/compare/1731715200/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219027272#!/compare/1731888000/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/item/15086657585

Went to alt/friend afterwards.

= 5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold with Festivizer (~0.5 keys) for ~3 keys in festive weapons

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025471880#!/compare/1730160000/1730764800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997138838#!/compare/1730764800/1730851200

https://backpack.tf/item/5857587234

= 2.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073553708#!/compare/1729382400/1729468800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072896865#!/compare/1729036800/1729468800

https://backpack.tf/item/14999014751

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155371354#!/compare/1730937600/1731542400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1731456000/1731542400

https://backpack.tf/item/14996107940

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198246096512#!/compare/1730073600/1730160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1731196800/1731283200

https://backpack.tf/item/14269506251

Untraceable, missing info in history

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029534325#!/compare/1729900800/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054722733#!/compare/1729468800/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/item/11984894372

Bulk/untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199964389#!/compare/1729468800/1729641600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198980609548#!/compare/1722211200/1729641600

https://backpack.tf/item/13436697250

Untraceable/Bulk

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198980609548#!/compare/1729900800/1729987200 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130707664#!/compare/1730073600/1730246400

https://backpack.tf/item/13436697250

Probably gambled

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080622893#!/compare/1728604800/1728691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025374641#!/compare/1728518400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/item/1964178120

Most likely SCM

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/yscnn3Q.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14996107940 - 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13436697250 - marketplace

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Heavy+Rain+Taunt%3A+The+Meet+the+Medic

https://i.imgur.com/TBofGby.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14269506251 - ~7 keys

Sales at:

2.5

5

6

1 buyer at 5, next highest at 4. I can’t really justify excluding most sales due to the sole buyer here. #2 is also likely to be a bit lower, their buy order was ~4 keys at the time of their purchase:

https://i.imgur.com/z6aqxtD.png

Excluding 2.5.

Taking 5-6 keys.