Suggestion: Cuban Smoke Aimframe at 14–15 keys

The Strange Stahlhelm being sold would suggest more keys were involved. If that is the case, the sale would end up being too high because of sellers anyway.

= 15 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104559253#!/compare/1726358400/1726444800 - Near ID: 14910389255

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1726272000/1726358400

https://backpack.tf/item/14686785545

= 15 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 14 keys + less than a key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991400533#!/compare/1728777600/1728950400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1728691200/1728777600

https://backpack.tf/item/14728608629

= 14 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 13 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133859324#!/compare/1729209600/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199405785454#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/item/14790740398

= 14 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104559253#!/compare/1727654400/1727740800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081123470#!/compare/1727395200/1728432000

https://backpack.tf/item/14786326720

= 14 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157969902#!/compare/1729900800/1730073600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388417011#!/compare/1729728000/1729987200

https://backpack.tf/item/14687206454

= 14 keys

Sale 8:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + 17 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254470802#!/compare/1730937600/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109952118#!/compare/1731024000/1731110400

https://backpack.tf/item/14687738719

= 11 keys

Sale 9:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199228558651#!/compare/1728604800/1728777600 - Near ID: 15007768464

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1728691200/1728777600

https://backpack.tf/item/14686785545

This follows the 19 key sale.

= 11 keys

Sale 10:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351669554#!/compare/1731283200/1731369600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199028972562#!/compare/1731283200/1731369600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Cuban%20Smoke%20Aimframe&at=2024-12-06T01:47:51.361Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/14690262157

= 8 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454504440#!/compare/1726531200/1726617600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203185182#!/compare/1726617600/1727049600

https://backpack.tf/item/14815777137

Sold for a bunch of junk, not an ideal sale to be using.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188838215#!/compare/1728950400/1732579200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199716151836#!/compare/1732579200/1732665600

https://backpack.tf/item/14790080904

Untraceable, looks like it was 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142766493#!/compare/1723507200/1727308800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1727222400/1727308800

https://backpack.tf/item/14752490895

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1725926400/1726012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070980833#!/compare/1725926400/1726012800

https://backpack.tf/item/14941505312 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070980833#!/compare/1730246400/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199174635222#!/compare/1730246400/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/item/14724869014

Bulk for Heavy Rain Commending Clap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199174635222#!/compare/1730246400/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007696852#!/compare/1730160000/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/item/14724869014

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007696852#!/compare/1730160000/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1730246400/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/item/14724869014

Bulk for Harvest Moon Aimframe

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102459024#!/compare/1727136000/1733443200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994902942#!/compare/1732060800/1732147200

https://backpack.tf/item/14718065210

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054778023#!/compare/1730246400/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1731801600/1731974400

https://backpack.tf/item/14707121865

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198825697628#!/compare/1728604800/1729123200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014914678#!/compare/1728604800/1728691200

https://backpack.tf/item/14687738719

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1731110400/1731196800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840189814#!/compare/1731369600/1732492800

https://backpack.tf/item/14687738719

Untraceable, probably marketplace

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031291977#!/compare/1726358400/1726531200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454504440#!/compare/1726444800/1726531200

https://backpack.tf/item/14815777137

Sold with ~1 key in items for Die Job Graybanns + Spectral Spectrum law

https://backpack.tf/item/14719763409 - marketplace

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31458;5;u336

$39.95, September 10th & 21st

$34.19, November 10th

$28.79, November 15th & December 1st

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.88, September 10th

$1.87, September 21st

$1.83, November 10th

$1.75, November 15th

$1.78, December 1st

39.95/1.88 = 21.25, rounds to 21 keys

39.95/1.87 = 21.364, rounds to 21 keys

34.19/1.83 = 18.683, rounds to 19 keys

28.79/1.75 = 16.451, rounds to 16 keys

28.79/1.78 = 16.174, rounds to 16 keys

= 21 keys (2x)

= 19 keys

= 16 keys (2x)

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/uMTQ86Y.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14686785545 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14719763409 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14690262157 - 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14793681908 - 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14790740398 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14724869014 - marketplace

Sales at:

11 (2x)

14 (4x)

15 (3x)

16 (2x, marketplace)

19 (2x, 1 marketplace)

21 (2x, marketplace)

8 is a large outlier, excluding 8.

Sellers at 15-16. The pure sale at 19 re-sold instantly for 11, so 19 has no extra weighting for being a pure sale.

With these sellers at 15-16, I’m not keen on including the marketplace sales much higher than this. Had at least one of the sales at 16 been pure, I would be more inclined to include it into the range. Excluding 16+.

The purchases at 11 went to bots. While there are currently no buyers at 11 keys (not counting STN), I’m not keen on keeping 11 in the range, unless it’s a bit more common of a trading point. Additionally, with none of the marketplace sales being included in the range, excluding 11 would help balance things out.

Taking 14-15 keys.