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10 months
Sale #1:
https://backpack.tf/item/10857893690
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115841780#!/compare/1726963200/1727136000 ~ 155 keys pure matches
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841645539#!/compare/1727049600/1727136000 ~ 155 leave
Sale #2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158201260#!/compare/1727049600/1727136000 ~ sold for a burning flames cotton head, added 5 keys + a Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher (49)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115841780#!/compare/1726963200/1727136000
= 205 - 54 = 151
Sale #3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841645539#!/compare/1731369600/1731456000 ~ 196 keys + Searing Stove Triboniophorus Gentlemannus
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971485686#!/compare/1731369600/1731456000 ~ only stove shown here.
Seems very high comapred to our other sales n b/o's
I don't agree with Sale 3 being excluded here. Reason being, that there's a fourth sale not being accounted for here: the DBD Crone's:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158201260#!/compare/1726444800/1726617600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180295770#!/compare/1726531200/1726617600
Should the Crone's be updated to 230 flat, this sale would come out to ~240 Keys for the Caribou. This sale on it's own would be a high outlier, but it does support the fact that Sale 3, which only comes out to 222 Keys (which is less than the $399.99 Marketplace listing) is not high.
You could round down this sale and go with 150-220.
Onion-Turtle had it listed for 6 months for 200, and still didn't sell was another reason I excluded sale 3. But i can include it now for you