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Counter to open suggestion
Item 1:
https://backpack.tf/item/15325689394
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/677613293b237e185604a375
$1127.19
keys at 2.02
1127.19/2.02 = 558 Keys
Sale 2:
Sold for 80 Keys + Steaming Le Party Phantom (109 Keys) + Tesla Coil Patriot Peak (was immediately sold for 300 Keys) = 489 → Rounding to 490 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128012200#!/compare/1736553600/1736726400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109986831#!/compare/1736640000/1736726400
Sale 3:
Sold for 715 Keys
https://imgur.com/a/1yAW5Sq
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109986831#!/compare/1738108800/1738195200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198880696674#!/compare/1738195200/1738281600
//
Total Sales
490, 558, 715
https://imgur.com/LjYrCCO
Taking 490 - 715 Keys
Not sure if this helps or harms this suggestion, since this should have been mentioned with the first one @ 558 keys.
The person who bought it from Steam Market sold essentially 1127.19$ worth of keys to pick it up, and due to community market fees, essentially makes each key cost around 1.77$ (down from 2.02$) in that calculation, bringing the purchased price to 636-637 keys.
https://i.imgur.com/sh4Gssh.png
It would still be in the range of 490-715, but I would imagine it makes the 490 sale seem closer to an outlier.