I got a little list

Sale 1:

Sold for Searing Plasma Vampire Vanquisher (Suggestion at 18)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141685007#!/compare/1735430400/1735516800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199028814813#!/compare/1735344000/1735689600

https://backpack.tf/item/14650299109

= 18 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 15 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1738108800/1738195200 - Near ID: 15404275230

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400310545#!/compare/1736467200/1738195200

https://backpack.tf/item/14307529669

= 15 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1739145600/1739232000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199096573596#!/compare/1739059200/1739232000

https://backpack.tf/item/12760916029

= 14 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 13 keys (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1736899200/1736985600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044342521#!/compare/1736812800/1736985600

https://backpack.tf/item/12760916029

Didn’t count the metal. If there’s enough for this to round to 14, it won’t affect the range.

= 13 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to STN for 12 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339468917#!/compare/1737590400/1738108800 - Near ID: 15384351734

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1735948800/1736035200

https://backpack.tf/item/14046990546

Retrieved from Mannco by the seller, dumped to STN.

= 12 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + 34.33 ref (<0.5 keys at the time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049884052#!/compare/1736121600/1736208000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1736121600/1736208000

https://backpack.tf/item/14307529669

= 12 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for 12 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094365132#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1736380800/1736467200

https://backpack.tf/item/12760916029

= 12 keys

Sale 8:

Sold for 10 keys to a bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198982416536#!/compare/1737417600/1737504000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389372563#!/compare/1737331200/1737504000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Cosmic%20Constellations%20Bulb%20Bonnet&at=2025-02-12T14:44:10.676Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12465963119

= 10 keys

Searing Plasma Vampire Vanquisher:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/67acb258b7f2f7ea080084b6

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31335;5;u274

$29.99, November 15th, 24th, 26th, December 16th & 28th

$29.49, Jan 25th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.75, November 15th (Image provided since it’s close to moving off the graph), December 16th

$1.80, November 24th & 26th, December 28th

$1.77, Jan 25th

29.99/1.75 = 17.137 (2x), rounds to 17 keys

29.99/1.8 = 16.661 (3x), rounds to 17 keys

29.49/1.77 = 16.661, rounds to 17 keys

= 17 keys (6x)

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199569232273#!/compare/1734912000/1735344000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141685007#!/compare/1735430400/1735516800

https://backpack.tf/item/14650299109

Untraceable, excluded the tradebacks prior to this.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198849751643#!/compare/1732147200/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890065525#!/compare/1731974400/1732233600

https://backpack.tf/item/14286111439

Bulk-ish for Searing Plasma Sola Topi + 10 keys

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389372563#!/compare/1731974400/1732060800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198441152155#!/compare/1731110400/1732233600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Cosmic%20Constellations%20Bulb%20Bonnet&at=2025-02-12T13:21:29.274Z - labelled as 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13147872900

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1736726400/1736812800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199533941322#!/compare/1736640000/1736812800

https://backpack.tf/item/12760916029

Untraceable/Bulk

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199533941322#!/compare/1736899200/1737072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1736812800/1736899200

https://backpack.tf/item/12760916029

Untraceable/Bulk

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044342521#!/compare/1737849600/1738972800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1737763200/1737849600

https://backpack.tf/item/12760916029

Untraceable, a key in metal matches

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1738281600/1738368000 - Near ID: 15410477194

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299948446#!/compare/1738281600/1738368000

https://backpack.tf/item/12707120702

11 keys match. Given other quicksell.store sales here, I’m certain this sold for a little more.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134220286#!/compare/1733184000/1733270400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1733184000/1733270400

https://backpack.tf/item/12656953927

Backpack buy

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1731542400/1731628800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995168435#!/compare/1731542400/1731628800

https://backpack.tf/item/12553158001

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119826352#!/compare/1738540800/1738627200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199536459741#!/compare/1738540800/1738627200

https://backpack.tf/item/13031160611

Untraceable, 3 keys + some metal match

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198302774496#!/compare/1733184000/1733270400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252699432#!/compare/1733097600/1733270400

https://backpack.tf/item/12465963119

Otherworldly Weather Thunder Dome matches, more would’ve been involved.

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252699432#!/compare/1736899200/1736985600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086972914#!/compare/1736899200/1736985600

https://backpack.tf/item/12465963119

Bulk for Aurora Skies Nightbane Brim

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086972914#!/compare/1737331200/1737504000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198982416536#!/compare/1737417600/1737504000

https://backpack.tf/item/12465963119

Untraceable, probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/12616557592 - mannco

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/PRj5Emd.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14307529669 - 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13031160611 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12490169945 - marketplace

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Cosmic+Constellations+Bulb+Bonnet

https://i.imgur.com/Q7s5PNA.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14046990546 - ~12.5 keys (~1 day)

Sales at:

10

12 (3x)

13

14

15

17 (6x, marketplace)

18

Buyer at 11, excluding 10.

Gonna disregard the young STN seller. We have a bunch of higher sales, even if most of them aren’t pure sales.

Taking 12-18 keys.