Sale 1:

Sold for 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1735776000/1735862400 - Near ID: 15313418157

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032388432#!/compare/1735776000/1735862400

https://backpack.tf/item/14393902447

= 20 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 19 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600 - Near ID: 15338156534

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032388432#!/compare/1736294400/1736467200

https://backpack.tf/item/13902202327

= 19 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 16 keys + 1 reclaimed metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198835970976#!/compare/1734480000/1734739200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1734566400/1734652800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Festive%20Falling%20Star%20Wanderer%27s%20Wool&at=2025-02-15T02:31:59.423Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/14611472663

= 16 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 16 keys + negligible metal (buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093556842#!/compare/1734739200/1734825600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1734739200/1734825600

https://backpack.tf/item/14393902447

= 16 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 15 keys (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1738195200/1738281600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050023352#!/compare/1738108800/1738800000

https://backpack.tf/item/14620445133

= 15 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199028972562#!/compare/1733788800/1733875200 - Near ID: 15222861208

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386067209#!/compare/1733788800/1733875200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Festive%20Falling%20Star%20Wanderer%27s%20Wool&at=2025-02-15T03:23:16.220Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/13886815968

= 15 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1733097600/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079001732#!/compare/1733097600/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/item/14926245281

Untraceable, 6 keys match

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079001732#!/compare/1733097600/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1733097600/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/item/14926245281

Bulk to STN for Scorching BoA

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1733097600/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199143645208#!/compare/1733097600/1733184000

https://backpack.tf/item/14926245281

Untraceable, gambled afterwards

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1732665600/1732752000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198851597200#!/compare/1733961600/1734048000

https://backpack.tf/item/14620445133

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198851597200#!/compare/1735603200/1735689600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1735603200/1735689600

https://backpack.tf/item/14620445133

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1736208000/1736294400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911471#!/compare/1736121600/1736294400

https://backpack.tf/item/14620445133

Bulk? Vivid Wanderer’s Wool matches

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911471#!/compare/1736294400/1736380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1736294400/1736380800

https://backpack.tf/item/14620445133

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844386127#!/compare/1734566400/1734825600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1734480000/1734566400

https://backpack.tf/item/14611472663

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1734566400/1734652800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198835970976#!/compare/1734480000/1734739200

https://backpack.tf/item/14611472663

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844386127#!/compare/1738972800/1739404800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1738886400/1738972800

https://backpack.tf/item/14533773580

Bulk

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050959046#!/compare/1734739200/1734825600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1734652800/1734739200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Festive%20Falling%20Star%20Wanderer%27s%20Wool&at=2025-02-15T02:31:59.423Z - labelled as 16 keys + 1 reclaimed metal

https://backpack.tf/item/14530255716

Untraceable. Most likely sold on marketplace afterwards.

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1732320000/1732406400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093556842#!/compare/1732406400/1733011200

https://backpack.tf/item/14393902447

Untraceable, 12 keys + negligible metal match

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032388432#!/compare/1736294400/1736467200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199039366805#!/compare/1736985600/1737072000

https://backpack.tf/item/14393902447

Untraceable/Bulk

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199039366805#!/compare/1737072000/1737158400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1736985600/1737072000

https://backpack.tf/item/14393902447

Untraceable/Bulk

#15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839480091#!/compare/1736208000/1736985600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1736899200/1736985600

https://backpack.tf/item/14368088963

Bulk

#16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357514979#!/compare/1736380800/1739577600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047971773#!/compare/1736467200/1737331200

https://backpack.tf/item/14039958311

Most likely gambled

#17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112578153#!/compare/1735516800/1736380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1735430400/1735516800

https://backpack.tf/item/13902202327

Untraceable

#18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1732752000/1732838400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125883758#!/compare/1732579200/1739059200

https://backpack.tf/item/13898012023

Vivid Plasma Timeless Topper + 2 keys and negligible metal match. Don’t wanna use without knowing what the B/O was.

https://backpack.tf/item/14515376509 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14222910471 - transferred to bot account

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31419;5;u321

https://backpack.tf/item/14405314062 - Jan 10th

https://backpack.tf/item/14368088963 - December 24th

https://backpack.tf/item/13979855719 - Dec 30th

https://backpack.tf/item/13969475373 - Dec 22nd

https://backpack.tf/item/13958762840 - November 19th or 22nd

Couldn’t find the rest

$29.69, November 19th, 22nd, Dec 22nd, 24th, 30th, Jan 3rd, 10th, & 16th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.78, November 19th, 22nd

$1.75, December 22nd, 24th, Jan 10th & Jan 16th

$1.80, December 30th, Jan 3rd

29.69/1.75 = 16.966, rounds to 17 (4x)

29.69/1.78 = 16.68, rounds to 17 (2x)

29.69/1.8 = 16.494, rounds to 16 (2x)

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/xOBV0B8.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14368088963 - ~15.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13984209035 - ~15.4 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31419;5;u321

https://backpack.tf/item/14645760245 - $29.69

https://backpack.tf/item/14515376509 - $29.69

https://backpack.tf/item/14682715506 - $29.69

https://backpack.tf/item/14611472663 - $29.69

https://backpack.tf/item/14374080880 - $29.69

https://backpack.tf/item/14245059630 - $29.69

https://backpack.tf/item/13959702768 - $29.69

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Festive+Falling+Star+Wanderer%27s+Wool

https://i.imgur.com/wBUuqc2.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14620445133 - ~14.8 keys

Sales at:

15 (2x)

16 (4x, 2 marketplace)

17 (6x, marketplace)

19

20

Given the 3 sellers below 16, I don’t want to stretch too far beyond them. We have pure sales at 15 and 16, then the sales at 17 are all marketplace sales. I think it would be good to stick with the lower pure sales, and go with 15-16 keys.

Taking 15-16.