Sale 1:

Sold for 13 keys + 27 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1734134400/1734220800 - Near ID: 15243135603

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198971075406#!/compare/1734220800/1734307200

https://backpack.tf/item/9309844875

The first 3 keys + 15 ref in the group went to a different trade

= 13 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1738713600/1738800000 - Near ID: 15426014542

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165380835#!/compare/1738195200/1738800000

https://backpack.tf/item/11660152955

= 12 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 11 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1732579200/1732665600 - Near ID: 15178436937

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196072990#!/compare/1732579200/1732665600

https://backpack.tf/item/9299380403

= 11 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 11 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1739491200/1739577600 - Near ID: 15456785657

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198373573340#!/compare/1739491200/1739577600

https://backpack.tf/item/12731320572

= 11 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055709647#!/compare/1732752000/1736294400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199746582072#!/compare/1736294400/1736380800 - No prior compare available

https://backpack.tf/item/14675474790

Untraceable. Skipped past the back-and-forth with the bot, it’s probably the buyer’s bot.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199746582072#!/compare/1739404800/1739491200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084205929#!/compare/1739404800/1739491200

https://backpack.tf/item/14675474790

Bulk for Frozen Icefall Citizen Cane

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070751352#!/compare/1738540800/1738627200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1738454400/1738540800

https://backpack.tf/item/12731320572

Untraceable/Bulk

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198373573340#!/compare/1739577600/1739664000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131413085#!/compare/1739577600/1739664000

https://backpack.tf/item/12731320572

Untraceable/Bulk

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199034685697#!/compare/1732147200/1732320000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199062438405#!/compare/1732060800/1732147200

https://backpack.tf/item/10230492567

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109872491#!/compare/1732320000/1732406400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116053206#!/compare/1731974400/1732579200

https://backpack.tf/item/10230492567

Untraceable. The history between this and #5 all looks like gambling. The rest of the history until the bot trade also looks like gambling.

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198853092312#!/compare/1725494400/1735603200 - private backpack

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125108615#!/compare/1736208000/1736294400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Gravelly%20Ghoul%20A%20Handsome%20Handy%20Thing&at=2025-02-17T01:11:30.991Z - labelled as 12 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/item/15329469734

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198971075406#!/compare/1734739200/1735948800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1734652800/1734739200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Gravelly%20Ghoul%20A%20Handsome%20Handy%20Thing&at=2025-02-17T01:11:30.991Z - labelled as 12 keys + 25.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/9309844875

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196072990#!/compare/1734134400/1734566400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1734393600/1734480000

https://backpack.tf/item/9299380403

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359891410#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000

https://backpack.tf/item/9299380403

Untraceable, only 10 keys match on the buyer’s end.

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165380835#!/compare/1738886400/1738972800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165380835#!/compare/1738886400/1738972800

https://backpack.tf/item/11660152955

Untraceable, sold to a bot

https://i.imgur.com/ucrxL8b.png - Buy orders were ~11.5 keys at the time

Follows the 12 key sale.

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301049636#!/compare/1739318400/1739404800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1739318400/1739404800

https://backpack.tf/item/9735794129

Backpack buy

https://backpack.tf/item/12130366076 - Quicksell.store bots

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31129;5;u160

$26.99, Jan 15th

On top of this exceeding current sellers, it also appears to have re-sold to quicksell.store

https://backpack.tf/item/11660152955

Excluding.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/FJmMXfA.png

https://backpack.tf/item/12036787961 - ~12.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14675474790 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14954735372 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9309844875 - ~13.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9808635092 - 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14085127328 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/13223295542 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9735794129 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/11660152955 - marketplace

Sales at:

11 (2x)

12

13

11 is pretty common. Despite proximity to current buyers, I’ll keep it in the range.

12 and 13 both re-sold to bots, but we shouldn’t be doing 11 flat here. There are some bot purchases at ~12 keys that will support keeping at least 12 in the range. I will exclude 13 though.

Taking 11-12 keys.