Sale 1:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 3 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827124516#!/compare/1735776000/1736035200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177065068#!/compare/1735689600/1735776000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mirthful%20Mistletoe%20Elf%20Care%20Provider&at=2025-02-18T04:20:53.805Z - labelled as 7 keys + 3 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/10679855714

7 keys match on the buyer’s end. Didn’t count the metal since it’s not gonna affect the price here.

= 7 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199015682327#!/compare/1737331200/1737504000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199015682327#!/compare/1737331200/1737504000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mirthful%20Mistletoe%20Elf%20Care%20Provider&at=2025-02-18T04:20:53.805Z - labelled as 7 keys + 2 scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/15221234920

They most likely didn’t care for the scrap.

= 7 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199665871556#!/compare/1732838400/1733011200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1732406400/1732924800

https://backpack.tf/item/11714656079

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010234212#!/compare/1737244800/1737331200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1737244800/1737331200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mirthful%20Mistletoe%20Elf%20Care%20Provider&at=2025-02-18T04:20:53.805Z - labelled as 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11714656079

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198970695250#!/compare/1737590400/1737849600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352361829#!/compare/1630713600/1737849600

https://backpack.tf/item/11455251275

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1735689600/1735776000 - Near ID: 15307858541

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1735689600/1735776000

https://backpack.tf/item/10268913857

Some metal matches. Most likely would’ve been 7 keys + that metal

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199259710764#!/compare/1736553600/1736726400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1736640000/1736726400

https://backpack.tf/item/9867266420

Sold to Quicksell.store with ~4 keys in items for ~4.7 keys in items + VfB Uncraftable Prussian Pickelhaube

Seller re-sold the Pickel for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199259710764#!/compare/1739318400/1739491200 - Near ID: 15453484678

https://backpack.tf/item/973641784

Makes this sale like 3.5 keys lol

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439075368#!/compare/1739577600/1739836800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1739750400/1739836800

https://backpack.tf/item/9732624776

Backpack buy

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275300929#!/compare/1732233600/1734220800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1733788800/1733875200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mirthful%20Mistletoe%20Elf%20Care%20Provider&at=2025-02-18T04:20:53.805Z - labelled as 7 keys + 2.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/9732300900

Untraceable, but buyer’s end would suggest it was 7 keys + negligible metal

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275300929#!/compare/1732233600/1734220800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264306278#!/compare/1732060800/1733875200

https://backpack.tf/item/9732300900

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097952139#!/compare/1734566400/1737504000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1737331200/1737417600

https://backpack.tf/item/9542755736

Untraceable, backpack buy or something

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1737590400/1737676800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199252537253#!/compare/1737676800/1737763200

https://backpack.tf/item/9542755736

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1735603200/1735689600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035237398#!/compare/1735603200/1735689600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mirthful%20Mistletoe%20Elf%20Care%20Provider&at=2025-02-18T04:20:53.805Z - labelled as 7 keys + 25 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/15221234920

Untraceable, 15 ref matches.

Next sale after this is very untraceable, seems like a decent chunk of history is missing.

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199252537253#!/compare/1738022400/1738108800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1737936000/1738022400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mirthful%20Mistletoe%20Elf%20Care%20Provider&at=2025-02-18T04:20:53.805Z - Labelled as 7 keys + 1 scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/9542755736

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/10232645659 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9586324291 - marketplace

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31176;5;u175

https://backpack.tf/item/13803286741 - Looks like late December

https://backpack.tf/item/9718569060 - Feb 16th

Can’t find the other histories

$16.95, November 22nd

$15.30, December 14th

$15.52, December 26th (2x)

$15.52, Feb 16th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.78, November 22nd

$1.75, December 14th

$1.79 Average, December 26th (spike in graph, not using exact date)

$1.82, February 16th

16.95/1.78 = 9.522, rounds to 9.5 keys

15.3/1.75 = 8.743, rounds to 8.5 keys

15.52/1.79 = 8.67, rounds to 8.5 keys (2x)

15.52/1.82 = 8.527, rounds to 8.5 keys

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/83CadOZ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/10192992547 - ~7.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11575120266 - ~7.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9542755736 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10232645659 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9586324291 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10000361837 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10679855714 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10949361718 - marketplace

Generic buy order at 7, effect-specific buy orders at ~6.85 keys.

Sales at:

7 (2x)

8.5 (4x, marketplace)

9.5 (marketplace)

9.5 is gonna be a bit of an outlier. Excluding 9.5.

With sellers at ~7.85, normally 8.5 wouldn’t be included, but with out low-end based solely on bot purchases (and we have a lot of them), 8.5 is going to have to do.

Taking 7-8.5 keys.