Sale 1:

Sold for 7 keys + Spec. KS Festive Black Box (~2 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000 - Near ID: 15345308704

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158484784#!/compare/1736640000/1736899200

https://backpack.tf/item/12320610405

B/O would’ve been significantly cheaper, but can’t confirm it.

= 9 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 32.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035799847#!/compare/1734307200/1734566400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235704407#!/compare/1734220800/1734307200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Bombard%20Brigadier&at=2025-02-18T06:17:21.443Z - Confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12192564724

= 7.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 20.44 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127716971#!/compare/1737158400/1737244800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1737158400/1737244800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Bombard%20Brigadier&at=2025-02-18T06:17:21.443Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12181749509

= 7.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121456056#!/compare/1736380800/1737763200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Bombard%20Brigadier&at=2025-02-18T06:17:21.443Z - labelled as 7 keys + 20 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13856500223

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063630617#!/compare/1734048000/1738368000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069206704#!/compare/1734048000/1734134400

https://backpack.tf/item/12344406538

SCM

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199652290612#!/compare/1736121600/1736208000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1736294400/1736380800

https://backpack.tf/item/12320610405

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158484784#!/compare/1737849600/1738022400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1737763200/1737849600

https://backpack.tf/item/12320610405

Bulk/untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199444800951#!/compare/1733356800/1733443200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1733356800/1733443200

https://backpack.tf/item/12186442229

Bulk to STN

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1734134400/1734220800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161217159#!/compare/1733875200/1735948800

https://backpack.tf/item/12186442229

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1734739200/1734825600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171836357#!/compare/1734566400/1734912000

https://backpack.tf/item/12190841622

Bulk/untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199652057998#!/compare/1734566400/1734652800 - most likely not the right seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1734566400/1734652800

https://backpack.tf/item/12190841622

Untraceable/Bulk

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840611282#!/compare/1737590400/1738022400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134179762#!/compare/1737763200/1737936000

https://backpack.tf/item/12192564724

Untraceable, most likely gambled

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134179762#!/compare/1737936000/1738022400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1737936000/1738022400

https://backpack.tf/item/12192564724

Bulk/untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1735084800/1735171200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1735084800/1735171200

https://backpack.tf/item/12193604401

Bulk to STN

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121456056#!/compare/1736380800/1737763200

https://backpack.tf/item/12193604401

Untraceable, 3 keys match

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199005590758#!/compare/1739318400/1739404800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235704407#!/compare/1739318400/1739404800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Bombard%20Brigadier&at=2025-02-18T06:17:21.443Z - labelled as 7 keys + 20.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12222410944

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/12179492264 - Quicksell.store bots

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31309;5;u265

https://backpack.tf/item/12181749509 - early/mid January

https://backpack.tf/item/13856500223 - late January

https://backpack.tf/item/12276801396 - late November

https://backpack.tf/item/12320610405 - late December/early January

https://backpack.tf/item/12192564724 - late December/early January

Couldn’t find the rest, though the history in #8 may belong here.

$15.79, November 20th

$15.51, December 3rd

$15.08, December 18th, Jan 7th (3x), 9th, 13th, 19th, 21st, 31st

$14.85, December 25th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.78, November 20th, Jan 7th, 9th, 13th, 19th,

$1.76, December 3rd

$1.75, December 18th

$1.78 average, December 25th (not using exact date due to spike on graph)

$1.77, Jan 21st

$1.79, Jan 31st

15.79/1.78 = 8.871, rounds to 9 keys

15.51/1.76 = 8.813, rounds to 9 keys

15.08/1.75 = 8.617, rounds to 8.5 keys

15.08/1.78 = 8.472, rounds to 8.5 keys (6x)

15.08/1.77 = 8.52, rounds to 8.5 keys

15.08/1.79 = 8.425, rounds to 8.5 keys

14.85/1.78 = 8.343, rounds to 8.5 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/VECK5cB.png

https://backpack.tf/item/12192564724 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12176867408 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12181749509 - marketplace

Sales at:

7.5 (2x)

8.5 (10x, marketplace)

9 (3x, 2 marketplace)

8.5 really shouldn’t be included in the range with that 5 month old seller at 8, but we have 10 marketplace sales at that price, as well as our low-end being based on buy order purchases.

Current buyers are as high as a limited ~7.25 keys for any effect. 7.5 will be fine for the low-end.

Excluding 9, not too common, and 2 of them are marketplace sales that currently have cheaper sellers. The other is from a mixed Quicksell.store, with an unknown B/O.

Taking 7.5-8.5 keys.