Sale 1:

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Brothers in Blues (45)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046264916#!/compare/1736985600/1737072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800400967#!/compare/1723161600/1738108800

https://backpack.tf/item/11923912945

= 45 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 33 keys + 32 ref (rounds down)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1737331200/1737417600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198393303870#!/compare/1736640000/1737417600

https://backpack.tf/item/12009678267

= 33 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 33 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050412790#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000

https://backpack.tf/item/12009678267

= 33 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 29 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076514342#!/compare/1738886400/1739836800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108134313#!/compare/1739750400/1739836800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Sunbeams%20Undercover%20Brolly&at=2025-02-22T02:44:41.143Z - labelled as 29 keys + 21 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12125941559

Seller could’ve spent the metal on hats, or could’ve excluded the metal from the trade. Either way, this will end up at 29.

= 29 keys

Sale 5:

Sold with negligible metal for 28 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972510204#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://backpack.tf/item/11923912945

= 28 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1738713600/1738800000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050412790#!/compare/1738713600/1738800000

https://backpack.tf/item/14574900294

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198393303870#!/compare/1732579200/1732838400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106511423#!/compare/1732752000/1732838400

https://backpack.tf/item/12095940619

Untraceable, gambled afterwards

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009914215#!/compare/1733443200/1733529600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061836787#!/compare/1733356800/1733443200

https://backpack.tf/item/12095940619

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050412790#!/compare/1736812800/1736899200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1736726400/1736812800

https://backpack.tf/item/12009678267

Untraceable, went to quicksell.store. Follows the 33 key sale.

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1737331200/1737417600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198393303870#!/compare/1736640000/1737417600

https://backpack.tf/item/12009678267

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198393303870#!/compare/1739318400/1739577600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128199745#!/compare/1739404800/1739491200

https://backpack.tf/item/12009678267

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972510204#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046264916#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000

https://backpack.tf/item/11923912945

Sold for Restless Wraiths Twisted Topper, using there.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31262;5;u17

https://backpack.tf/item/12125941559

$64.99, Jan 22nd & 29th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.76, Jan 22nd

$1.79, Jan 29th

64.99/1.79 = 36.307, rounds to 36 keys

64.99/1.76 = 36.926, rounds to 37 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/uW1yPhh.png

https://backpack.tf/item/12125941559 - 34 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12009678267 - 36 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12066801123 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/11924343714 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12013941775 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/11940383475 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14321064887 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12095940619 - marketplace

Buyers at ~30 keys

Sales at:

28

29

33 (2x)

36 (marketplace)

37 (marketplace)

45

45 is an obvious outlier, excluding 45.

Buyers at 30+ keys, excluding 28 and 29.

Sellers at 34 and 36. The 34 key seller is pretty new, so I’ll keep 36 in the range. But with the other seller also at 36, I’ll exclude 37.

Taking 33-36 keys.