Sale 1:

Sold for 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104559253#!/compare/1738540800/1738627200 - Near ID: 15420891655

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014250683#!/compare/1738368000/1738627200

https://backpack.tf/item/13646326278

= 14 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022407862#!/compare/1734739200/1735862400 - Near ID: 15312575461

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1735776000/1735862400

https://backpack.tf/item/15217628778

= 12 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013864057#!/compare/1733270400/1733356800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066207210#!/compare/1732147200/1733443200

https://backpack.tf/item/13781269414

= 12 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191744974#!/compare/1733616000/1733788800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1733702400/1733788800

https://backpack.tf/item/13762540505

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1733702400/1733788800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328984748#!/compare/1733702400/1733788800

https://backpack.tf/item/13762540505

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199934679#!/compare/1736380800/1736640000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1736294400/1736380800

https://backpack.tf/item/13713249344

Bulk/untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1738886400/1738972800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199812329180#!/compare/1738886400/1738972800

https://backpack.tf/item/13713249344

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1738281600/1738368000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165642787#!/compare/1738281600/1738368000

https://backpack.tf/item/13668254093

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199129384026#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1736467200/1736553600

https://backpack.tf/item/13647876594

Bulk to STN

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1736640000/1736726400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198990666962#!/compare/1736640000/1736812800

https://backpack.tf/item/13647876594

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328984748#!/compare/1733788800/1733875200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093118352#!/compare/1733011200/1733961600

https://backpack.tf/item/13762540505

Untraceable, however, on the buyer’s end I found 13 keys that went to a different account before going to the seller on the same day. For example: https://backpack.tf/item/12780374168 (buyer -> someone else -> seller)

Could’ve been the 13 keys here, not sure.

https://backpack.tf/item/13742981456 - alt transfers or something

https://backpack.tf/item/13646158492 - tradebacks, nothing usable

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31394;5;u294

$29.99, December 24th

$40, Jan 3rd

$26.99, Jan 10th

Couldn’t find the histories

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.75, December 24th

$1.80, Jan 3rd

$1.78, Jan 10th

29.99/1.75 = 17.137, rounds to 17 keys

40/1.8 = 22.222, rounds to 22 keys

26.99/1.78 = 15.163, rounds to 15 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/xFzaahZ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/15217628778 - 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13646158492 - 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13801546583 - 19 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13643750948 - ~20.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13694076156 - 31 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13742981456 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14164569588 - marketplace

Sales at:

12 (2x)

14

15 (marketplace)

17 (marketplace)

22 (marketplace)

22 is an outlier countered by sellers. Excluding 22.

17 looks like an outlier, but there are a couple untraceable sales that look like they could have potentially been around that price range, or at least higher than the current pure sales here. Keeping 17.

Taking 12-17 keys.