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Casino Night at the Beach!
Sales indicates a range of 12-25, adjusted to 16-25 for reasonableness
25 keys
https://ibb.co/hJRzdvmt
https://backpack.tf/item/14972999940
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012514588#!/compare/1736726400/1736812800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199028972562#!/compare/1736726400/1736812800
Not Sold
https://backpack.tf/item/15166396943
Untraceable, sold to private bp ~16k, sold to bot ~12k
12k is the outlier
https://ibb.co/4nDb4GFx
https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Aces+High+Tropical+Brim
https://backpack.tf/item/14950230825
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1733184000/1733270400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1733184000/1733443200
STN's prices can change, so their listed sell price being 16 at the time of this suggestion being made - when they no longer own one - isn't a guarantee that the sale was for 16 Keys. You'd need concrete evidence to confirm the sale is 16 Keys, so without that, the 16 Key sale here isn't usable.
That said, there was a new sale for 16 Keys. It's now listed for 21, so 25 may end up being high, but there's not enough at the moment to exclude it.
https://imgur.com/a/vZlM4sY - New sale for 16
https://imgur.com/a/oS4xYio - Listing for 21