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Price Analysis and Suggestion from the past 5 years of documented sales from Backpack.tf (Gladiator.tf), Marketplace.tf, and Mannco.Store.
Important Numbers
Listing Snapshot (From G.tf, MP.tf, bp.tf, and MC.store):
Averages - Sellers: 93.335 Keys; Buyers: 61.90 Keys
Lowests - Sellers: 59.2 Keys, Buyers: 83.82 Keys
Highests - Sellers: 66.11 Keys, Buyers: 98.26 Keys
Gladiator.tf:
Average - 89.98 Keys
Lowest - 68 Keys
Highest - 112.02 Keys
Mannco.store:
Average - 81.8575 Keys
Lowest - 63.58 Keys
Highest - 92.48 Keys
Marketplace.tf:
Average - 108.99 Keys
Lowest - 64.74 Keys
Highest - 144.51 Keys
Combined Averages:
Average - 94.05 Keys
Lowest - 63.58 Keys
Highest - 144.51 Keys
Quartile 1 - 78.52 Keys
Quartile 3 - 118.90 Keys
10% Above Average - 103.46 Keys
10% Below Average - 84.65 Keys
Important Notes
This is a price analysis from available documented sales/purchases from Marketplace, Backpack.tf (Using Gladiator.tf), MannCo.Store, without the use of Premium Backpack. Some obvious improvements to be made to this method are a) The use of premium backpack to track down more recent sales occurring between human traders, b) A further look at the current situation of this item (i.e. in ghost backpacks, collectors backpacks, etc) and c) A more thorough look at the trendline (see appendix materials for graph).
Conclusive Suggestion
Basing the price of an unpriced unusual is difficult, and has some issues around current interest into the effect, hat, and the game as a whole. A clearer price (lower range) may be clear after a couple more years of consistent sales/purchases but for the time being, a suggested price, based on previous sales, and current sales, is 94 Keys +- 10%, meaning a range between 84.6 Keys and 103.4. This pricing also seems appropriate considering the following:
1. This is an all class "dome" type hat.
2. This is a commando grade hat.
3. This effect has an average pricing of 169.94 Keys (considering its a 2021 effect, this price should be updated as well.)
4. The effect itself actually has the same colour palette as the non-painted hat.
5. Ominous Stare Alakablamicon (95-96 Keys) and Viridescent Peeper Alakablamicon (87 Keys), the sister effects, are priced and, I agree that Ominous Stare is a better effect overall, this effect better suites the hat overall (Sellers are at 122 for Ominous Stare atm, there should be a re-pricing of that soon as well)
Appendix
https://imgur.com/a/5N8CtKV
Disclosure
Won this item at auction - https://scrap.tf/auctions/8XIY12
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79020-guide-how-to-make-an-unusual-price-suggestion-2021-edition/
https://backpack.tf/rules
Thank for the resources!
"Part 1. What is valid proof?
Sales
Sales older than 3 months old are not valid proof; this does not mean that they are not useful."
"Rule - for all unusuals below 5 keys, rounding to the nearest 0.05 keys is required. No other decimals are allowed.
Rule - for all unusuals 5-10 keys, please round to the nearest 0.5 keys. No other decimals are allowed.
Rule - for all unusuals above 10 keys, please round to the nearest whole key
Guideline - for hats 100-200 keys, please round to the nearest 5 keys"
"Unfortunately, that means we can no longer allow trades that occur on Mannco for price suggestions."
https://backpack.tf/item/10770832945
Also, how much did you pay for this? If you refuse to disclose that, this suggestion will never be accepted.
I'm in the process of reading all this stuff, thank you, didn't know if there where community agreed guidelines especially for unusual vs. non-unusual.
Also I can't seem to find any rules stating I need to immediately disclose the amount paid for an item owned? If you could link a section of the rules that would be awesome. I wanted to also ask if you have any authority to say "If you refuse to disclose that, this suggestion will never be accepted.", are you a price moderator or similar position or is this just a common thing? Not trying to be rude, just curious.
From this statement: "Evidence must not be cherry-picked."
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6791de46be08632f70051af2
If ppl refuse to disclose their purchases, the moderator will close the suggestion directly.
"It doesn't seem like you're interested in disclosing your purchase, so it seems fitting for me to close this."
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/67f15cea4e4b3605090f2a4e
"The point made was that you withheld a valid sale without a good reason (or any reason for that matter). You were asked to supply the sale, and you refused. That's a valid reason to close a suggestion."
Ah TY for providing an example! Didn't relise evidence must not be cherry-picked was such an overarching term. I will find my price I got on it. Do you need proof of the purchase? This might be something to explicitly add to the rule list :) considering when I read that section, I didn't think about that aspect. Also considering I think I won it at auction, do scrap.tf auctions count as proof? This seems like something that has also already been decided upon.
The auction is valid evidence. Just link to that auction.
Amended the suggestion for moderators/people to see price won. Thank you for the help Bentry Suster, i will spend some time having a read of the resources you provided. Really means a lot :D <3
Nice suggestion and explanation however unusual suggestions are different to non unusual suggestions. There are a number of things that wouldn't have this suggestion accepted but I will give you the main pointers.
- Any sales over 3 Months (90 days) of recent sales of the unusual. This includes player to player unusual trades not just bot sales
- Must include screenshots, compare links and item histories showing dates and items traded
- Price must be rounded to the nearest key if over 10 keys (different rounding rules for more or less expensive unusuals)
I would recommend reading this before suggesting again.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/6033-rules-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
Thanks for taking the time to explain. I have already had Bentry Suster point this out.