Re-suggesting, new range.

Sale 1:

Sold for Aussie SMG (~11 keys) + Bucking Bronco Unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043625371#!/compare/1743552000/1743638400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419871336#!/compare/1743120000/1743552000

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

= ~12 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419871336#!/compare/1743120000/1743552000 - Near ID: 15600764949

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125443371#!/compare/1743552000/1743465600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosted%20Decadence%20Undercover%20Brolly&at=2025-04-11T02:43:57.077Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

Occurred after the Aussie SMG sale

= 12 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1743724800/1743897600 - Near ID: 15609623571

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1743724800/1743811200

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

= 12 keys

Sale 4:

Most likely sold for 10 keys + 32.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211439861#!/compare/1744588800/1744675200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235704407#!/compare/1744502400/1744588800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosted%20Decadence%20Undercover%20Brolly&at=2025-04-15T01:47:34.335Z - labelled as 10 keys + 32.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12087656230

All the metal on the seller’s end matches, should be good enough to confirm.

= 10 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128968043#!/compare/1741910400/1742428800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100128531#!/compare/1720137600/1742083200

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

Untraceable, probably gambled. Gambled prior.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100128531#!/compare/1720137600/1742083200 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043625371#!/compare/1741651200/1742083200

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

Untraceable, likely bulk for keys

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199407485932#!/compare/1738281600/1738454400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326567308#!/compare/1738368000/1738454400

https://backpack.tf/item/12012997226

Untraceable/Bulk

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004754474#!/compare/1736985600/1742774400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870819168#!/compare/1728086400/1740960000

https://backpack.tf/item/11992603569

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870819168#!/compare/1741737600/1742860800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033286325#!/compare/1741651200/1741996800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosted%20Decadence%20Undercover%20Brolly&at=2025-04-11T02:43:57.077Z - labelled as ~11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11992603569

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033286325#!/compare/1742601600/1742688000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096558252#!/compare/1742601600/1742688000

https://backpack.tf/item/11992603569

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1741737600/1741824000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1741737600/1741824000

https://backpack.tf/item/11940104088

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030119065#!/compare/1741564800/1741651200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1741478400/1741564800

https://backpack.tf/item/11925888703

Bulk

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080283111#!/compare/1741651200/1743724800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080947868#!/compare/1743120000/1743638400

https://backpack.tf/item/11921685703

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1737590400/1737676800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199148314072#!/compare/1717286400/1737763200

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199148314072#!/compare/1737763200/1739664000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1739059200/1739145600

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable, bulk-ish

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1740355200/1740441600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199403343860#!/compare/1739750400/1740700800

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199403343860#!/compare/1740700800/1740873600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1740614400/1740700800

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/12133896400 - tradeback

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31262;5;u226

$26.99, Jan 16th, Feb 15th, & March 15th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.78, Jan 16th

$1.82, Feb 15th

$1.87, March 15th

26.99/1.78 = 15.163, rounds to 15 keys

26.99/1.82 = 14.83, rounds to 15 keys

26.99/1.87 = 14.433, rounds to 14 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/MnP6exg.png

https://backpack.tf/item/11940104088 - ~13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11925888703 - ~13.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12012997226 - 15 keys

https://i.imgur.com/b5i9Q8p.png - highest buyer at ~10.5 keys

Sales at:

10

12 (3x)

14 (marketplace)

15 (2x, marketplace)

Buyers at ~10.5, excluding 10.

Taking the range Foamy suggested.

Going with 12-15 keys.