Sale #1

https://backpack.tf/item/14536299642

Ballcap + Flaming Lantern Team Captain for a Scorching Flames Killer Exclusive

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042788986#!/compare/1741132800/1744243200

Flaming Lantern Team Captain mini

https://backpack.tf/item/1193199123

Team Captain + Sunbeams Noble Amassment of Hats (recently priced at 45) for a Power Surge Killer Exclusive

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053783254#!/compare/1744848000/1744934400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1744848000/1744934400

Rocket launcher doesn't match in compare links

Power Surge Killer Exclusive mini

https://backpack.tf/item/1663122907

Dead presidents bonk boy + Celestial Summit Mean Captain

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053783254#!/compare/1744934400/1745366400

Dead presidents bonk boy mini

https://backpack.tf/item/1870820195

Dead presidents bonk boy + 160 keys for Death at Dusk Flamboyant Flamenco (in date at 295)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1744070400/1744156800

295 - 160 = 135

Taking 135

Celestial Summit Mean Captain mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31385;5;u293

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/15/25

$309.99 / $1.91 (median value at the time) = 162.3

Rounding to 160

So for the Power Surge Killer Exclusive, it is 135 + 160 = 295

Therefore, for the Flaming Lantern Team Captain it is 295 - 45 = 250

Scorching Flames Killer Exclusive mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/538;5;u14

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/19/25

$1000 / $1.88 (median price at the time) = 531.9

Rounding to 530

Therefore, returning to Sale #1

530 - 250 = 280

Taking 280

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/14536299642

1:1 for a Time Warp Defiant Spartan (in date at 352.5)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170082509#!/compare/1744156800/1744243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1744156800/1744243200

Rounding to 350

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/14536299642

Ballcap + Vintage Professional Killstreak Lugermorph (16) + Potassium Bonnet (36) + Spec KS Aussie Stickybomb Launcher (23) for a Scorching Flames Brotherhood of Arms

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170082509#!/compare/1744588800/1744761600

Scorching Flames Brotherhood of Arms mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30066;5;u14

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/29/25

$799.99 / $1.91 (median value at the time) = 418.8

Rounding to 420

420 - 23 - 36 - 16 = 345

Taking 345

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/6589038769

Backpack dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040073503#!/compare/1739318400/1739750400

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/945302172

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140803713#!/compare/1739923200/1740009600

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/945302172

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069393071#!/compare/1740700800/1740873600

Current Sellers:

345 on bp.tf (4x)

Sales: 280, 345, 350

Considering how messy & contrived sale #1 is (I am not convinced at all by the pricing of the bonk boy, which is below buy orders), and how close it is to current buy orders & disproportionately lower than the other two sales, I am going to call it an outlier.

Taking 345 - 350