Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u371

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/1/25

$52.83 / $1.83 (median value at the time) = 28.9

Rounding to 29

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15605007510

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198423468710#!/compare/1744502400/1746576000

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15458321633

Histories dont match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198877320307#!/compare/1740182400/1740355200

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15458321633

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074308509#!/compare/1744156800/1744243200

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/15458321633

1:1 for Dead Presidents Commonwealth Commando (in date at 27)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074308509#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600

Taking 27

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15412924137

Dumped to bots

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1739318400/1739318400/nearest

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15412924137

15 + ~9 keys in sweets = 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161479472#!/compare/1740182400/1740528000

Taking 24

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15304219374

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207750538#!/compare/1738540800/1738886400

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15304219374

Big Kill (commonly sold at 14) + 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198808591474#!/compare/1738540800/1739404800

Taking 25

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15304219374

20 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198808591474#!/compare/1742688000/1743465600

Taking 20

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15300545647

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172366030#!/compare/1736467200/1741392000

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15277355716

Stormy Storm Human Cannonball + 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198980362515#!/compare/1743465600/1743811200

Can't find a mini for the cannonball

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15273001870

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143998536#!/compare/1721692800/1740355200

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15248827935

20 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035013576#!/compare/1738627200/1739145600

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15223946294

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159149142#!/compare/1740355200/1740441600

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/15223946294

Crimbo + 7 keys for Disco Beat Down Vampire Vanquisher

Disco Beat Down Vampire Vanquisher mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31003;5;u62

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/22/25

$54.99 / $1.91 (median value at the time) = 28.8

Rounding to 29

29 - 7 = 22

Taking 22

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/15223946294

Crimbo + 6 keys for Treasure Trove Firestalker

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199137675420#!/compare/1740960000/1741132800

Not even gonna bother doing a mini because this is such an extreme outlier (will come out to ~10 keys for crimbo)

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/15223946294

Quicksold for 16.5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198289372905#!/compare/1741132800/1741219200

Current sellers:

20 on bp.tf (8 hours old at time of posting)

$52.83 on mp.tf (3x)

Sales: ~10, 16.5, 22, 20, 20, 25, 24, 27, 29

Sales at 10 and 16.5 moved very quickly and are disproportionate so will be ignored

Plugged rest into standard deviation calculator, got a mean of 23.86 and a standard deviation of 3.18. 29 falls well out of this range so I am going to call it an outlier.

Taking 20-27