Sale #1

https://backpack.tf/item/10305389581

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/617;5;u35

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/6/25

$59.99 / $1.89 (median value at the time) = 31.7

Rounding to 32

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/1296937603

Smoking Commonwealth Commando + Sizzling Crimbo Cap + 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004739500#!/compare/1738886400/1739318400

Smoking Commonwealth Commando & Sizzling Crimbo Cap mini

Both + 1 key for a dead presidents charmer's chapeau

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199162213236#!/compare/1739059200/1739318400

Histories match up: https://backpack.tf/item/7957310828

Dead President's Charmer's Chapeau mini

https://backpack.tf/item/7956904520

19 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389274250#!/compare/1745539200/1745625600

So therefore, commando & crimbo = 18 keys

Returning to sale #2: 18 + 3 = 21

Taking 21 keys

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/1296937603

Bought alongside a steaming law for 51 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124474154#!/compare/1741478400/1741564800

Steaming Law mini:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30362;5;u36

Marketplace.tf sale on 2/18/25

$44.99 / $1.80 (median value at the time) = ~25

Taking 25

Therefore, 51 - 25 = 26

Taking 26

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/1296937603

Untraceable, histories don't match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066686957#!/compare/1742774400/1743206400

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/1296937603

27 keys 15 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066686957#!/compare/1743552000/1744156800

Rounding to 27

Current sellers:

28.63 on bp.tf (2x)

29 on bp.tf (2x)

Sales: 26, 27, 32

Numerous sellers under the 32 key sale, calling it an outlier.

Taking 26 - 27