Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31366;5;u279

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/14/25

$29.33 / $1.92 (median value at the time) = 15.3

Rounding to 15

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31366;5;u279

Marketplace.tf sale on 2/21/25

$32.55 / $1.80 (median value at the time) = 18.1

Rounding to 18

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31366;5;u279

Marketplace.tf sale on 2/08/25

$33.89 / $1.82 (median value at the time) = 18.6

Rounding to 19

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15426263796

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207613432#!/compare/1739232000/1739318400

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/13615989630

Inventory dump?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159591311#!/compare/1739232000/1739318400

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/13601325815

1:1 for an aussie sniper rifle. Something obviously doesn't add up

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113084770#!/compare/1744416000/1744502400

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/13615989630

17 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199620388738#!/compare/1739577600/1739664000

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/13615989630

1:1 Aussie Ambassador (~12 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199536459741#!/compare/1745193600/1745280000

Taking 12

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/13445850597

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206471180#!/compare/1724371200/1743033600

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/13384210041

Dumped to bots

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1745280000/1745366400

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/13384210041

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044711140#!/compare/1745280000/1745452800

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/13367544257

11 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127773728#!/compare/1744588800/1744675200

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/13263431398

13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160606181#!/compare/1739664000/1741392000

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/13263431398

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199745408935#!/compare/1743033600/1743638400

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/13253398101

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207507454#!/compare/1739232000/1739404800

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/13253398101

Resold hours later

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235305952#!/compare/1739404800/1739404800/nearest

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/13253398101

Hard Carry Brimmed Bootlegger + 1 key for Dead Presidents Milkman

Dead Presidents Milkman mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/219;5;u60

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/28/25

$29.99 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 15.5

Rounding to 16

16 + 1 = 17

Taking 17 for Sale #17

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/13240048260

12 keys + 48 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060728416#!/compare/1736985600/1738886400

Rounding to 13

Current sellers:

$27.77 on mp.tf (3x)

$29.33 on mp.tf

13.39 keys on bp.tf (2x)

13.41 keys on bp.tf

14 keys on bp.tf

$37.00 on SCM

$41.23 on SCM

$57.50 on SCM

$68.19 on SCM

Sales: 15, 18, 19, 32, 12, 11, 13, 17, 13

Not counting 32 key sale which is obviously missing something. 19 key sale in outdated tomorrow and is dipropionate to current sellers. Similarly, 18 key sale is pretty old & doesn't accurately reflect its current price anymore.

Plugging rest into standard deviation calculator, we get the following:

Mean = 13.5

Standard deviation = 1.98

This shows that the 11 and 17 key sales are out of the range of the first standard deviation, indicating they're probably also outliers. This is supported by current sellers and buyers.

Taking 12-15