Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u367

Marketplace.tf sale of 2/15/25

$89.99 / $1.82 (median value at the time) = 49.5

Rounding to 50

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u367

Marketplace.tf sale of 4/04/25

$45.53 / $1.88 (median value at the time) = 24.2

Rounding to 24

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u367

Marketplace.tf sale of 4/23/25

$45.53 / $1.89 (median value at the time) = 24.1

Rounding to 24

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u367

Marketplace.tf sale of 5/02/25

$45.53 / $1.91 (median value at the time) = 23.8

Rounding to 24

Sale #5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u367

Marketplace.tf sale of 5/07/25

$45.53 / $1.95 (median value at the time) = 23.4

Rounding to 23

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15508611197

20 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197771978#!/compare/1741478400/1741564800

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15489694968

Unknown / sold to bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199807089379#!/compare/1745193600/1746057600

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15489694968

11 + ~5 keys in sweets?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077855693#!/compare/1746057600/1746403200

Calling it 16

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15489694968

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134768130#!/compare/1746489600/1746576000

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15489612654

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031126990#!/compare/1740528000/1741132800

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15489612654

37 keys? Definitely missing information

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198877320307#!/compare/1740441600/1740528000

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15489612654

Bulk for Roboactive Tyrantium Helmet, can use there

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174890191#!/compare/1743724800/1743984000

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15489612654

Dumped to bots

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202139954#!/compare/1744588800/1745193600

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15437517778

17 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070471526#!/compare/1742688000/1742860800

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15437517778

31 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198370869451#!/compare/1742774400/1743379200

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/15397913468

12 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282127334#!/compare/1739318400/1739404800

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/15397913468

Histories don't match up

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061072607#!/compare/1739577600/1739664000

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/15357192009

22 keys 27 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198428686398#!/compare/1740787200/1740960000

Rounding to 22

Sale #19

https://backpack.tf/item/15265020911

Bulk / dumped to bots

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064851728#!/compare/1737072000/1740355200

Sale #20

https://backpack.tf/item/15265020911

Unknown? Up to 34 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260266528#!/compare/1740182400/1740268800

Sale #21

https://backpack.tf/item/15265020911

Aurora Skies Crimbo Cap + 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034251585#!/compare/1744761600/1745366400

Recommend using this trade to price the Aurora Skies Crimbo Cap instead

Sale #22

https://backpack.tf/item/15237034063

Bulk for a Revenant's Rack Twisted Topper

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081792896#!/compare/1741564800/1742083200

Sale #23

https://backpack.tf/item/15237034063

Fragmented Gluons Missing Piece + 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199199531944#!/compare/1742083200/1742169600

Fragmented Gluons Missing Piece mini

https://backpack.tf/item/15583723986

19 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198996232595#!/compare/1743552000/1743638400

19 + 6 = 25

Calling it 25

Sale #24

https://backpack.tf/item/15237034063

Dumped to bots

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068543310#!/compare/1742688000/1742774400

Sale #25

https://backpack.tf/item/15237034063

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068543310#!/compare/1742774400/1742860800

Sale #26

https://backpack.tf/item/15231131493

1:1 Startrance Hawaiian Hunter

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027614882#!/compare/1724976000/1745798400

No good mini found, can be used there

Sale #27

https://backpack.tf/item/15225349067

Bulk for Sunbeams Whirly Warrior

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045551697#!/compare/1740182400/1740355200

Should be used there

Sale #28

https://backpack.tf/item/15225349067

18 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045551697#!/compare/1744934400/1745107200

Current sellers:

$44.99 on mp.tf

$45.53 on mp.tf

$54.00 on SCM

$57.50 on SCM

$77.54 on SCM

24 keys on bp.tf

25 keys on bp.tf (2x)

38 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 50, 24, 24, 24, 23, 20, 16, 37, 17, 31, 12, 22, 25, 18

Sales at 50 and 12 are clearly outliers and will be ignored. 37 seems like were missing details, will also be ignored. Taking standard deviation of the rest:

Mean = 22.2

Standard deviation = 4.1

Sales at 16, 17, 18 and 31 now fall out of range of first standard deviation.

Calling it 20 - 25