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Sale #1
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u368
Marketplace.tf sale on 3/16/25
$39.99 / $1.87 (median value at the time) = 21.4
Rounding to 21
Sale #2
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u368
Marketplace.tf sale on 3/25/25
$35.00 / $1.89 (median value at the time) = 18.5
Rounding to 19
Sale #3
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u368
Marketplace.tf sale on 4/01/25
$35.00 / $1.90 (median value at the time) = 18.4
Rounding to 18
Sale #4
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u368
Marketplace.tf sale on 4/17/25
$35.00 / $1.91 (median value at the time) = 18.3
Rounding to 18
Sale #5
https://backpack.tf/item/15665776571
1:1 for an Orbiting Planets Old Guadalajara
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059606622#!/compare/1745625600/1745712000
No usable mini for the Old Guadalajara, use there
Sale #6
https://backpack.tf/item/15651893949
12 keys and 21 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199819654224#!/compare/1745712000/1746316800
Rounding to 12
Sale #7
https://backpack.tf/item/15638766041
9 keys 4 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205723668#!/compare/1744416000/1744588800
Rounding to 9
Sale #8
https://backpack.tf/item/15586788307
Crimbo Cap + Radiant Legacy Covert Covers for a Strange Arachne's Web Classy Capper
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198810226476
#!/compare/1745107200/1745280000
No mini for the Classy Capper. Should be used to price there
Sale #9
https://backpack.tf/item/15541940461
Dumped to bots
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090373633#!/compare/1743724800/1744588800
Sale #10
https://backpack.tf/item/15541940461
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057158858#!/compare/1741564800/1745193600
Sale #11
https://backpack.tf/item/15515812237
9 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035013576#!/compare/1741478400/1741824000
Sale #12
https://backpack.tf/item/15515812237
Inventory dump
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1744156800/1746144000
Sale #13
https://backpack.tf/item/15488805614
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165066971#!/compare/1740528000/1741132800
Sale #14
https://backpack.tf/item/15451113968
11 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199539391520#!/compare/1739836800/1739750400
Sale #15
https://backpack.tf/item/15450927242
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046397903#!/compare/1740873600/1740960000
Sale #16
https://backpack.tf/item/15450927242
Unsure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1740873600/1740960000
Sale #17
https://backpack.tf/item/15450927242
Buds (7.33) + Arkham Cowl (1.25) = 8.58
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061517427#!/compare/1742860800/1743120000
Rounding to 8.5. Resold to same bot a few days later
Sale #18
https://backpack.tf/item/15450927242
Crimbo Cap + Gravelly Ghoul A Handsome Handy Thing (in date at 11.5) for a Tropical Thrill Undercover Brolly
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061517427#!/compare/1743897600/1744156800
Tropical Thrill Undercover Brolly mini
https://backpack.tf/item/11923679941
15 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296556106#!/compare/1745107200/1745193600
15 - 11.5 = 3.5
Taking 3.5
Sale #19
https://backpack.tf/item/15450927242
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1744502400/1744588800
Sale #20
https://backpack.tf/item/15435342360
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128461602#!/compare/1704931200/1744848000
Sale #21
https://backpack.tf/item/15425318797
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094329754#!/compare/1744416000/1745280000
Sale #22
https://backpack.tf/item/15425318797
1:1 for a Steaming Professor's Peculiarity
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199137675420#!/compare/1744675200/1745020800
Steaming Professor's Peculiarity mini
https://backpack.tf/item/2455968761
Sold for Valiant Vortex El Mostacho + 2 keys
Valiant Vortex El Mostacho mini
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31074;5;u133
Marketplace.tf sale on 1/06/25
$26.45 / $1.80 (assuming value?) = 14.7 keys
Rounding to 15
15 + 2 = 17
Therefore, Sale #22 is 17
Sale #23
https://backpack.tf/item/15425318797
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448915279#!/compare/1745020800/1745107200
Sale #24
https://backpack.tf/item/15425318797
9 keys 38 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231709968#!/compare/1746230400/1746316800
Rounding to 9.5
Sale #25
https://backpack.tf/item/15401411624
Unclear
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199034193112#!/compare/1732579200/1739923200
Sale #26
https://backpack.tf/item/15386880455
Bulk sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844386127#!/compare/1745625600/1745712000
Sale #27
https://backpack.tf/item/15386880455
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231709968#!/compare/1745712000/1745971200
Sale #28
https://backpack.tf/item/15386880455
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080253443#!/compare/1745884800/1745971200
Sale #29
https://backpack.tf/item/15370286808
Unclear
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199178307972#!/compare/1739491200/1739664000
Sale #30
https://backpack.tf/item/15370286808
Dumped to bots
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199178307972#!/compare/1739664000/1740614400
Sale #31
https://backpack.tf/item/15370286808
12 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1740009600/1740096000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199513453937#!/compare/1740009600/1740096000
Sale #32
https://backpack.tf/item/15370286808
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406114836#!/compare/1740787200/1740960000
Sale #33
https://backpack.tf/item/15342009121
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084162829#!/compare/1733270400/1743465600
Sale #34
https://backpack.tf/item/15330105018
Bulk for Burning Flames Calamitous Cauldron maybe?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035013576#!/compare/1740096000/1740268800
Sale #35
https://backpack.tf/item/15330105018
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874598825#!/compare/1740096000/1740355200
Sale #36
https://backpack.tf/item/15330105018
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874598825#!/compare/1740355200/1740528000
Sale #37
https://backpack.tf/item/15330105018
10 keys 21 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1740614400/1740700800
Rounding to 10
Sale #38
https://backpack.tf/item/15330105018
13 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1740787200/1740873600
Sale #39
https://backpack.tf/item/15291908107
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235305952#!/compare/1746316800/1746403200
Sale #40
https://backpack.tf/item/15232776713
11 keys 4 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163581005#!/compare/1742688000/1742601600
Rounding to 11
Sale #41
https://backpack.tf/item/15232776713
Moved to scammer
Sale #42
https://backpack.tf/item/15229733012
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011235503#!/compare/1732924800/1742428800
Sale #43
https://backpack.tf/item/15229306029
9 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067234651#!/compare/1741910400/1742256000
Current sellers:
$35.00 on mp.tf (7x)
$39.99 on mp.tf
$34.76 on SCM
$39.99 on SCM
$44.00 on SCM
$50.14 on SCM
$49.99 on SCM
$48.83 on SCM
14 keys on bp.tf
15 keys on bp.tf
17 keys on bp.tf (2x)
20 keys on bp.tf
Sales: 21, 19, 18, 18, 12, 9, 11, 8.5, 3.5, 17, 9.5, 12, 10, 11, 9
Lots of sales on this one. The 3.5 feels like something is missing so I'll be ignoring it. Plugging it all into a standard deviation calculator:
Mean = 13.214
Standard deviation = 4.216
This gives a massive range of 9 - 17, but what can you do when they're all spread out evenly?
Taking 9 - 17