Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u6

Can't locate history

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/09/25

$15.99 / $1.84 (median value at the time) = 8.69

Rounding to 8.5

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15639469943

7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1746748800/1746835200 (ID: 15721944945)

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15614279272

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800837194#!/compare/1744416000/1744761600

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/14245398567

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1740096000/1740182400

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/14245398567

1:1 for Orbiting Fire Shooter's Sola Topi

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199418247808#!/compare/1745971200/1746316800

Orbiting Fire Shooter's Sola Topi mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/158;5;u33

$22.99 / $1.80 (assuming value) = 12.8

Rounding to 13

13 keys

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/12934386458

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199262268533#!/compare/1741219200/1742515200

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/12934386458

8 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199262268533#!/compare/1745452800/1745971200

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/12934386458

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198998208422#!/compare/1745452800/1745539200

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/11684943390

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199306799864#!/compare/1744588800/1744761600

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/11684943390

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062884679#!/compare/1745712000/1746403200

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/9055509211

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1739923200/1740009600

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/9055509211

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198836967499#!/compare/1742169600/1742860800

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/9055509211

7 keys probably

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1742860800/1742947200

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/8897914630

Cashout

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177713602#!/compare/1744329600/1746403200

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/8006420983

7 keys 20.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1743897600/1743984000

Rounding to 7.5

Current sellers:

$16.99 on mp.tf (2x)

$23.58 on SCM

$30.55 on SCM

$15.98 on mannco.store

$15.99 on mannco.store

7.68 keys on bp.tf (4x)

8.33 keys on bp.tf

8.39 keys on bp.tf

10 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 8.5, 7, 13, 8, 7, 7.5

The common selling point currently is definitely 7.5, but this hat seems to fluctuate a bit over time. I think 7 - 8 is a reasonable range given the sales, with the stuff over being outliers.

Final price: 7 - 8