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Sale #1
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u35
Marketplace.tf sale on 4/02/25
$19.99 / $1.89 (median value at the time) = 10.6
Rounding to 11
Sale #2
https://backpack.tf/item/15487759142
8 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039622523#!/compare/1740614400/1740960000
Sale #3
https://backpack.tf/item/15487759142
Bulk for spelled stuff
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205383525#!/compare/1741564800/1741651200
Sale #4
https://backpack.tf/item/15487759142
9 keys 33.66 ref (histories match)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199063684992#!/compare/1741651200/1741737600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1741651200/1741737600
Rounding to 9.5
Sale #5
https://backpack.tf/item/15487759142
Bulk?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1742947200/1743033600
Sale #6
https://backpack.tf/item/15395754294
10 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1742515200/1742601600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199680922147#!/compare/1739577600/1744934400
Sale #7
https://backpack.tf/item/8689783145
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1741132800/1741219200
Sale #8
https://backpack.tf/item/8689783145
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989595076#!/compare/1740528000/1742947200
Sale #9
https://backpack.tf/item/7053312155
Airdog + 7 keys for a Blizzardy Storm Bomb Beanie (use there)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310539112#!/compare/1740268800/1740355200
Sale #10
https://backpack.tf/item/7053312155
Unsure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167761436#!/compare/1740096000/1740355200
Sale #11
https://backpack.tf/item/7053312155
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199645987184#!/compare/1743206400/1743552000
Current sellers:
$18.99 on mp.tf (2x)
$19.99 on mp.tf
$23.99 on mp.tf
$17.50 on mannco.store
10 keys on bp.tf (2x)
11 keys on bp.tf
Sales: 11, 8, 9.5, 10, 10
Calling 8 an outlier due to consistent higher sales and higher buy orders.
Final price: 9.5 - 11
Sale 2 was actually for the Voice From Below Graybanns for the Airdog + 17 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205383525#!/compare/1740528000/1740873600
The histories don't match for sale 4. Instead, the IDs match for 29.22 Refined if you make the compare from 3/10 to 3/11.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199063684992#!/compare/1741564800/1741651200
I'm not seeing the 10 Keys that match in sale 6. I can't tell what that sale is.
Sale 10 looks like it was for a Winning Spirit Burstchester + ~5 Keys of Items
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167761436#!/compare/1740096000/1740355200
The Burstchester has no other sales, but it has a generic buy order at 4.3 Keys, so that'd make this sale round to 9.5 Keys.
Assuming this is the history that corresponds to the Marketplace sale, it looks like whomever bought it dumped it to STN.
https://backpack.tf/item/14239997080
https://imgur.com/a/hYV0MQa - It's now listed for ~9.5 Keys
If sale 6 isn't actually 10 Keys, a flat value of 9.5 Keys could work.
Bumping this ^^
Thanks! Ill look into it tonight