Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u58

https://backpack.tf/item/5373568822 (maybe)

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/04/25

$24.99 / $1.83 (median value at the time) = 13.7

Rounding to 14

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15673850794

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150347450#!/compare/1745539200/1746230400

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15673850794

Bulk sale?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199100906514#!/compare/1746748800/1746921600

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/12333777937

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1741392000/1741478400

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/12053757175

Airdog + Circling TF Logo Sky High Fly Guy for a Pumpkin Party Hollowed Helm

Circling TF Logo Sky High Fly Guy mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30984;5;u11

Can't find history

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/09/25

$22.99 / $1.84 (median value at the time) = 12.5

Rounding to 13

Pumpkin Party Hollowed Helm mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31128;5;u163

https://backpack.tf/item/9412405244

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/24/25

$50.00 / $1.89 (median value at the time) = 26.5

Rounding to 27

Back to Sale #5

27 - 13 = 14

14

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/12053757175

Sold for a Cloud 9 Head Hedge + 1 key

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1746662400/1746748800 (ID: 15719228694)

Cloud 9 Head Hedge mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30978;5;u58

https://backpack.tf/item/9211047848

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/05/25

$35.00 / $1.95 (median value at the time) = ~18.0

Rounding to 18

Returning to Sale #6

18 + 1 = 19

19

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/12053757175

Airdog + 2 keys for a Ghastly Grove El Mostacho

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101966697#!/compare/1746748800/1746921600

Ghastly Grove El Mostacho mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31074;5;u127

Can't find history

Marketplace.tf sale on 2/08/25

$28.99 / $1.80 (assumed value) = 16.1

Rounding to 16

Back to sale #7

16 - 2 = 14

14

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/11756319659

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199570820757#!/compare/1741219200/1745971200

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/11756319659

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199620927094#!/compare/1745107200/1745280000

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/11756319659

Bulk for a Starstorm Insomnia Coldsnap Cap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199620927094#!/compare/1745625600/1745712000

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/10511986633

Air Dog + Sizzling Crimbo Cap (9) for a Smoking Antarctic Eyewear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146143891#!/compare/1739750400/1739923200

Smoking Antarctic Eyewear mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30977;5;u35

Can't find history

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/28/25

$34.99 / $1.87 (median value at the time) = 18.7

Rounding to 19

Back to Sale #11

19 - 9 = 10

10

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/10511986633

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1739836800/1739923200

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/10511986633

14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1741305600/1741392000

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/6828332237

13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1740009600/1740096000 (ID: 15475996800)

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/5373568822

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1746662400/1746748800

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/4908765373

10 keys 17.11 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418172095#!/compare/1743811200/1743897600 (ID: 15610661754)

Rounding to 10

Current sellers:

$24.99 on mp.tf (5x)

$35.82 on SCM

$22.79 on mannco.store

$22.98 on mannco.store

13.26 keys on bp.tf (2x)

Sales: 14, 14, 19, 14, 10, 14, 13, 10

Plenty of cheaper sellers than 19 so can't consider that. Buy orders above 10 currently, plus a very consistent value between 13-14 which also reflects current sellers.

Final price: 13 - 14