Sale #1

https://backpack.tf/item/14753836644

9 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202110112#!/compare/1744329600/1744416000

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/14753836644

8 keys 9 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198834115993#!/compare/1744588800/1744761600

Rounding to 8

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/14753836644

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1746403200/1746489600

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/14717602886

1:1 for a Kill-a-Watt Airdog (active suggestion at 9.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1745798400/1745884800 (ID: 15687091959)

9.5

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/14717602886

Airdog + ~3 keys of sweets for a Vexed Volcanics Calamitous Cauldron

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199592847825#!/compare/1745884800/1745971200

Vexed Volcanics Calamitous Cauldron mini

https://backpack.tf/item/9321613268

10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1740182400/1740268800 (ID: 15481467234)

Back to sale #5

10 - 3 = 7

7

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/14717602886

16 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1746403200/1746489600 (ID: 15709138702)

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/14717589657

10 keys 59 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124507599#!/compare/1739404800/1739664000 (ID: 15460483592)

Rounding to 11

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/14717589657

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1740873600/1740960000

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/14717589657

10 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1741737600/1741824000

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/14717589657

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199045781941#!/compare/1742774400/1744156800

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/14717589657

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1746144000/1746230400

Current sellers:

$34.99 on mp.tf (2x)

$45.03 on SCM

$44.93 on SCM

Sales: 9, 8, 9.5, 7, 11, 10

7 key sale probably impacted by an unusually low mini - far below buyers anyone so it's ignored. Rest plugged into standard deviation calculator:

Mean = 9.5

Standard deviation = 1

8 and 11 fall out of range.

Final price: 9 - 10