Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u62

Can't find history

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/08/25

$37.99 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 19.7

Rounding to 20

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15667614880

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844386127#!/compare/1745971200/1746316800

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15376308775

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096044051#!/compare/1743033600/1743120000

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/13020266880

15 keys - 9 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198409107663#!/compare/1741219200/1741392000

Rounding to 15

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/13020266880

Gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198409107663#!/compare/1743638400/1744156800

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/13020266880

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199120201440#!/compare/1744848000/1745539200

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/13020266880

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062884679#!/compare/1745020800/1745712000

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/13020266880

11 keys 29 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299715717#!/compare/1746316800/1746403200

Rounding to 11

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/13020266880

Airdog + 27.33 ref for a Stormy Storm Hephaistos' Handcraft

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299715717#!/compare/1746403200/1746576000

Stormy Storm Hephaistos' Handcraft mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31000;5;u29

https://backpack.tf/item/7447701094

Marketplace.tf sale on 2/13/25

$35.90 / $1.82 (median value at the time) = 19.7

Back to sale #9

19.7 - .4(27.33 ref) = 19.3

Rounding to 19

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/13020266880

14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016951064#!/compare/1746748800/1746835200

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/11480348390

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1739577600/1739664000

Current sellers:

$37.99 on mp.tf (3x)

$39.99 on mp.tf

19 keys on bp.tf

19.26 keys on bp.tf (2x)

26.18 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 20, 15, 11, 19, 14

Plugged into a standard deviation calculator:

Mean = 15.8

Standard deviation = 3.3

11 and 20 now fall out of range

Final price: 14 - 19