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Sale #1
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u195
https://backpack.tf/item/10783050187
Marketplace.tf sale on 3/03/25
$39.99 / $1.83 (median value at the time) = 21.9
Rounding to 22
Sale #2
https://backpack.tf/item/10783050187
Bulk sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413621375#!/compare/1743033600/1744243200
Sale #3
https://backpack.tf/item/10783050187
Untraceable
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1744156800/1744243200 (ID: 15624514762)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091786731#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600
Sale #4
https://backpack.tf/item/10783050187
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091786731#!/compare/1744329600/1744416000
Sale #5
https://backpack.tf/item/10744219444
7 keys 16 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199218460534#!/compare/1736985600/1747094400 (ID: 15594100142)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198378207723#!/compare/1740700800/1740787200
Sale #6
https://backpack.tf/item/10744219444
10 keys 18 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198378207723#!/compare/1743379200/1743465600 (ID: 15598110978)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977721610#!/compare/1743465600/1743552000
Rounding to 10
Current sellers:
$39.99 on mp.tf
Sales: 7, 10, 22
The 7 and 10 key sales happened in less than a day. Obviously, they're quicksells and not reflective of this hats actual value.
Final price: 22
New sale:
Sold with a Fragmented Photons Yule Hog (Buyers at 26) for a Green Energy Strikeout(Seller at 43 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046264916#!/compare/1747958400/1748044800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064490192#!/compare/1747872000/1748044800
While this does technically count as bulk, if this sale is given a very generous valuation by valuing the Yule Hog at buyers and the Strikeout at sellers, it will come out to ~17 Keys, which is a fair bit lower than 22. This, combined with the two very low quicksale sales suggest that 22 flat will be far too high.
This will need to stay unpriced for the time being.