Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30866;5;u62

https://backpack.tf/item/11356201863

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/14/25

$39.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 20.6

Rounding to 21

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30866;5;u62

https://backpack.tf/item/10099018402

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/21/25

$39.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 20.6

Rounding to 21

Sale #3 (gladiator.tf)

https://backpack.tf/item/15433959630

17 keys 42.77 ref (keys immediately used to buy new hat)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199056084556#!/compare/1741910400/1742169600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111970399#!/compare/1741824000/1742083200

Rounding to 18

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15433959630

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111970399#!/compare/1742169600/1742256000

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/15433959630

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186297679#!/compare/1742601600/1743552000

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15433959630

Sold for a Stormy storm warhood (active price suggestion at 19.5) + 1 key = 20.5

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1745539200/1745625600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089411346#!/compare/1744675200/1745625600

Rounding to 21

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/11356201863

19 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1741305600/1741392000 (ID: 15522801867)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1741305600/1741392000

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/11245993987

16 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255481836#!/compare/1744848000/1745452800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105790327#!/compare/1731628800/1745366400

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/5974285330

Backpack sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034866132#!/compare/1743033600/1744588800

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/5974285330

17 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307602421#!/compare/1745539200/1745712000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092108897#!/compare/1745193600/1745712000

Gladiator.tf link: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Disco%20Beat%20Down%20Warhood&at=2025-05-22T06:10:53.134Z

Current sellers:

$48.99 on mannco.store

$49.99 on mp.tf

17 keys on bp.tf

23.39 keys on bp.tf

25 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 21, 21, 18, 21, 16, 17

The 17 key seller hasn't bumped their listing since they posted it 4 days ago, so I don't think its accurate to use it as an unsold. I think taking the full range here is best given we have consistent sales on both ends.

Final price: 16 - 21