Suggestion: Treasure Trove Blast Bowl at 9.5–13 keys

Bubbling Melted Mop + Blast Bowl + Dead Presidents Bombing Run (in date at 10.5) for Stormy Storm Jolly Jingler + Green Confetti Sinner's Shade + 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1747353600/1747440000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1747353600/1747440000

Bubbling Melted Mop mini

https://backpack.tf/item/15456696399

10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1746316800/1746403200 (ID: 15706666466)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199838137180#!/compare/1746316800/1746403200

Stormy Storm Jolly Jingler mini

https://backpack.tf/item/9831103886

12 keys 27.44 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278736964#!/compare/1743897600/1744156800 (ID: 15621163070)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1744070400/1744156800

Rounding to 12

Green Confetti Sinner's Shade mini

Every usable mini is either above sellers or below buyers. Going with the average between buy orders (12.74) and sellers (13.45), which is rounded to 13

Back to Sale #30

12 + 13 + 5 = 30

30 - 10 - 10.5 = 9.5

9.5

Sale #31 (DUPLICATE SALE, HISTORIES GLITCHING?)

https://backpack.tf/item/13251237945

9 keys 4.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1747785600/1747872000

Rounding to 9

Sale #32

https://backpack.tf/item/13244162859

Bulk for a Strange The Bone Zone Thunder Dome

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199186504218#!/compare/1744070400/1744243200

Sale #33

https://backpack.tf/item/13244162859

Bulk for something, can't tell what

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199077082172#!/compare/1744416000/1744502400

Sale #34

https://backpack.tf/item/13244162859

Dumped to STN

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107297043#!/compare/1744502400/1744675200

Sale #35

https://backpack.tf/item/13244162859

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204560323#!/compare/1736640000/1747267200

Sale #36

https://backpack.tf/item/13244162859

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

Sale #37

https://backpack.tf/item/13240305082

Untraceable, can't tell what moved for what & histories dont match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192388893#!/compare/1747008000/1747785600

Sale #38 (gladiator.tf)

https://backpack.tf/item/15509848048

11 keys 52.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967713796#!/compare/1740960000/1741046400

Rounding to 12

Sale #39 (gladiator.tf)

https://backpack.tf/item/15715518958

Untraceable, glad.tf says 9 keys 29.22 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000026735#!/compare/1744156800/1746921600

Rounding to 9.5

Gladiator.tf sales (chronological order):

11 keys 52.33 ref on 3/04/25 (Sale #38)

12 keys 10.88 ref on 3/26/25 (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088822281#!/compare/1742860800/1742947200, shows 6 keys?)

12 keys 12.44 ref on 4/03/25 (Sale #7)

11 keys 53.33 ref on 4/07/25 (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380634252#!/compare/1743984000/1744070400, 11 keys 53.33 ref move here)

9 keys 29.22 ref on 5/08/25 (Sale #39)

9 keys 34 ref on 5/14/25 (Sale #29)

Current sellers:

$27.95 on mp.tf (8x)

$25.00 on SCM

$56.00 on SCM

$57.00 on SCM

$57.73 on SCM

9 keys 52.88 ref on STN

9.97 keys on bp.tf

10 keys on bp.tf (2x)

10.47 keys on bp.tf

11.67 keys on bp.tf

12.61 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 15, 15, 15, 10, 11, 9, 13, 12, 11, 7, 9.5, 10, 9, 13, 14, 9.5, 12, 9.5, 6, 12

Ignoring the 6 key sale as its probably missing stuff. Plugging the rest into a standard deviation calculator, we get:

Mean = 11.40

Standard deviation = 2.27

Only taking the sales that fall into the first range of deviation, we get 9.5 - 13 as our final price using our sales.

Final price: 9.5 - 13

Ranges averaging over 10 Keys need to have each end rounded to the nearest Key.

Do you suggest 9 or 10 here? I think 9 is better right?

The proper compare for sale 15 is this - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

The compare you linked is actually sale 31. I can't tell what sale 15 is.

The compare you listed for sale 21 is actually sale 20, and 11 Keys is correct there. The actual sale 21 isn't traceable.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357874396#!/compare/1745193600/1745452800

What was added to the Blast Bowl in Sale 23 for the Rocket can be seen from the buyer's side.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074795733#!/compare/1745193600/1745366400

I count 10 Keys going to Grrr in sale 25. Sale 26 looks like the Sylicone Succiduous Blast Bowl, but that'll be high.

For Sale 28, the buyer sold the Sky High Fly Guy to scrap.tf for some number of Keys and Metal before using some of that for the Blast Bowl.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1745280000/1745366400 - scrap.tf's side

https://backpack.tf/item/15179122366 - At least 1 Key from there seems to go to Komi, and if you use the ID next to Komi in the compare linked for sale 28 here, the 3 scrap match. That means sale 28 won't be traceable here.

I don't know where you're seeing 7 Keys in adds in sale 29, nor do I see the Firearm Protector coming from the buyer. The "buyer" compare you linked is the buyer of sale 30. Sale 29 will be untraceable. Sale 30 as it's written here would be an unusable bulk sale, but 5 Keys match by ID in the seller's compare, so the sale was probably some untraceable number of Keys for the Blast directly.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1747872000/1747958400 - New untraceable sale

With Key prices at the time, sale 5 rounds to 10 Keys, sale 7 rounds to 12 Keys, sale 18 is actually 12 Keys + 10.88 Refined but rounds to 12 Keys anyway, sale 22 is actually 10 Keys + 33 Refined and will round to 10 Keys, sale 31 rounds to 9 Keys, sale 38 rounds to 12 Keys, sale 39 rounds to 9 Keys, and the April 7th Gladiator sale rounds to 12 Keys.

That gives sales at 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 13, 15, 15, and 15. The sales at 9 were all buy order sales, and the sales at 15 were all Marketplace sales. With buy orders at 9 and an unsuccessful seller for 3 weeks at 10, I'd say a range of 10 - 11 would work best.

Bumping for the suggester, it’s been 22 days -w-

Thanks! Forgor about this