Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31371;5;u290

Can't find history

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/01/25

$16.95 / $1.90 (median value at the time) = 8.92

Rounding to 9

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31371;5;u290

Can't find history

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/21/25

$15.00 / $1.90 (median value at the time) = 7.90

Rounding to 8

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15645683297

Immediately dumped to STN

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073857011#!/compare/1746144000/1746403200

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15591876392

Backpack sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198379906251#!/compare/1745712000/1747785600

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/15545059920

Untraceable (keys dont match)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286341212#!/compare/1742860800/1743033600

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/14050881176

7 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199211956151#!/compare/1738800000/1743292800 (ID: 15588011624)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014914678#!/compare/1741564800/1741564800/nearest (can't trace)

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/14050881176

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014914678#!/compare/1743206400/1743379200

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/14050881176

7 keys move to Scrappys inventory when looking at each removed key from the buyers inventory. Calling this one 7

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1746230400/1746316800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004421442#!/compare/1746230400/1746316800

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/13364804630

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1741737600/1741824000

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/13343509706

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199118480176#!/compare/1744243200/1744243200/nearest

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/13281021599

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975235468#!/compare/1743379200/1743465600

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/13281021599

Bulk items sale, can't use

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1743379200/1743465600 (ID: 15597676010)

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/13262062046

~7 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1740873600/1740960000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298630257#!/compare/1740960000/1741219200

Buyer spends 15 keys total to get the Blast Bowl + a Serenus Lumen Killing Tree. We can see from this trade (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199681990931#!/compare/1740614400/1740960000 (ID: 15506227481)) that they spent ~8 keys to get the Killing Tree.

15 - 8 = 7

Rounding to 7

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/13262062046

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298630257#!/compare/1740960000/1741219200

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/13262062046

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199426427353#!/compare/1741737600/1741737600/nearest

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/13241474045

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086613329#!/compare/1743811200/1744243200

Current sellers:

$19.98 on mannco.store

$19.99 on mannco.store

$17.55 on SCM

7.45 keys on bp.tf (2x)

8 keys on bp.tf

8.22 keys on bp.tf

10 keys on bp.tf

7 keys 22.44 ref on STN

Sales: 9, 8, 7, 7

The vast bulk of the sellers are within the 7-8 range, indicating 9 is probably an outlier.

Final price: 7 - 8