Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31497;5;u364

https://backpack.tf/item/15411320675

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/06/25

$39.99 / $1.84 (median value at the time) = 21.7

Rounding to 22

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31497;5;u364

https://backpack.tf/item/15405405722

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/27/25

$39.99 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 20.7

Rounding to 21

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31497;5;u364

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/22/25

$26.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 13.9

Rounding to 14

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15695825070

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199792177680#!/compare/1747785600/1747785600

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/15674554929

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248790190#!/compare/1745539200/1745712000

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15628861981

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152705971#!/compare/1744848000/1745366400

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15369113764

Sold for a Voltaic Hat Protector A Head Full of Hot Air

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1745193600/1745280000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106660755#!/compare/1743552000/1745280000

Voltaic Hat Protector A Head Full of Hot Air mini

https://backpack.tf/item/15544281061

10 keys 0.33 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1744761600/1744848000 (ID: 15647556738)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1744761600/1744848000

Rounding to 10

Back to Sale #7

10 keys

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15369113764

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106660755#!/compare/1745280000/1748304000

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15323343881

8 keys + ~3 keys in ref/sweets

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1740873600/1740960000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199434431197#!/compare/1740787200/1740960000

Rounding to 11

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15323343881

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199434431197#!/compare/1741478400/1742256000

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15323343881

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1745971200/1746057600

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15279682351

9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065078015#!/compare/1747526400/1747612800 (Key ID: 15751759968)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114125480#!/compare/1747612800/1747699200

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15279232658

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1745193600/1745280000

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15269657746

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1741996800/1746576000

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15227715722

Bulk for spelled slop

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044852450#!/compare/1744070400/1744156800

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/15225631885

Untraceable, outdated tonight anyways

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198247629586#!/compare/1740528000/1740614400

Current sellers:

$26.99 on mp.tf (4x)

$39.99 on mp.tf

$49.99 on mp.tf

$16.48 on mannco.store

$16.49 on mannco.store

$19.97 on mannco.store

$24.28 on mannco.store

$23.00 on SCM

$24.50 on SCM

$25.30 on SCM

$29.84 on SCM

$30.17 on SCM

$36.68 on SCM

$52.06 on SCM

$230.00 on SCM

11.52 keys on bp.tf

14 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 22, 21, 14, 10, 11, 9

Unsolds on mannco.store and bp.tf clearly indicate sales above 11 are outliers from before this hats price settled onto its actual value. The unsolds on mannco.store further suggest that 11 keys is also too high. Going with 9 - 10

Final price: 9 - 10