Price Suggestion
Arcana Hound Dog
Submitted by ᴘᴀʏʙᴀᴄᴋ
arcana
Unusual Hound Dog Arcana
72 votes up
7 votes down
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Comments

    it has been brought to my attention that, since 2023, crypto sales have not been considered as a blanket rule for unusual suggestions. i want to state my reasoning as to why I don't think that should apply here.


    1. I am taking the platform-stated exchange rate at the time of the sale, when both parties agreed to the exchange rate and price for that specific medium.

    2. For unusuals in this price range, rounding to the nearest 50 keys would nullify or greatly reduce the volatility of crypto sales

    3. Two crypto buyers with multiple +trust in the last several days leads me to believe that while crypto to key sales are less frequent than cash, there are enough of them to where a consistent price can be determined

    4. The argument of anonymity does not apply here when both myself and the purchasing party can verify the transaction independently - this is not a third party reporting the sale

    5. The alternative is this hat remaining unpriced, which I don't find fair to the buyer or the community

      A month prior, 1 Bitcoin was ~$9000 less than at the time of this sale; a week prior, it was worth ~$7000 more; and a little over a month after this sale, it was worth ~$12000 more. That'd be ~$315 less to $240 - $420 more using the same exchange rate as was used in this suggestion, equating to ~184 Keys less or 140 - 246 Keys more than this suggestion. That suggests this cryptocurrency is still too volatile to be used.


      While Key prices in Bitcoin may be stable, the price of a Bitcoin is not.

        Would it make sense to have a range then? Seems better than outright ignoring a cash sale on an expensive hat like this

          personally i think it should be treated like other cash/mp sales, payback received 3.6k at the time of the sale which is an amount he was comfortable receiving. sure he could have sat on it and waited for bitcoin to appreciate, but if we're valuing other cash/pure sales at its value at the time they happened, i think this should be the same


          but there is definitely the concern that if this is accepted, it will set a precedent for others to do the same

            I agree with this logic. It’s certainly better to do this than it would be to reject this suggestion. The hat should be priced

              Agreed.

                im ngl the longer this is left open the more the instability of bitcoin could be used to argue this, like we're already edging the poor guy on for 4 (edit: 5) months atp just close it or accept it? lets say a sugg is made when the price of keys was 2 bucks and 4 months later keys fall to 1.8, we don't take 1.8 as the key price lol, idk i think 4 (edit: 5) months is more than enough time to make a verdict already

                  The price volatility should only be considered at the time of the sale / a reasonable window before and after for evaluating if this individual suggestion should be accepted. That said, as I mentioned before, the price was incredibly volatile at the time, and to the precedence point, Bitcoin's price has gone up and down thousands of dollars just today, let alone over the past week. Nothing suggests it's any less volatile now than at the time of this sale, and there isn't really anything supporting accepting this as a one-off nor setting a precedent of allowing Bitcoin / crypto sales to be used over continuing to exclude crypto sales.

                    I get the concern around crypto volatility, but I think this sale still fits the same logic we use for any cash/mp sale.

                    • The BTC rate was agreed and locked at the time of purchase, making it equivalent to a USD sale, not speculative or fluctuating after the fact.

                    • Multiple active, reputable crypto key buyers show consistent rates around $1.70–$1.71/key, so there’s a stable conversion base here.

                    • Even with BTC volatility, the rounded value (nearest 50 keys) already covers normal variance, it’s within the same tolerance we allow for marketplace or PayPal sales.

                    • Refusing it leaves the hat unpriced despite a verifiable, fair, pure sale that meets all the reliability standards we already apply elsewhere.


                    This isn’t about setting a new precedent for crypto sales, it’s about keeping pricing consistent and fair when the value at the time was clear and agreed upon.


                    In addition, even if the key price did change, ±$2000 movement translates to ~±3% change in key value, hardly effecting this price.

                      Bitcoin itself isn't directly cash - you'd still need to exchange it for cash, and if held, its price can vary. Additionally, Bitcoin price variance stacks with Key price variance. The third forums thread linked here had successful Key sales for crypto at $1.74 each. The fourth thread bumped their buy price up to $1.73 only 3 days later and had no successful purchases.


                      This bot had a buy price of $1.725 on June 4th.

                      https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/83682-%E2%98%81%EF%B8%8F-cloudbot-%E2%98%81%EF%B8%8F-buy-sell-tf2-keys-tod-ticket-%E2%87%84-crypto-buying-%F0%9F%92%B2165-selling-%F0%9F%92%B2167-trusted-instant-service-%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F-20-cryptocurrencies-btc-usdc-ltc-etc-%F0%9F%94%A5/


                      With the Bitcoin price range for the +/- 3 day window (for the sake of matching the range we give other Key-cash rates) around this Hound Dog sale and the Key price variance from 1.71 - 1.74, you'd have a potential price range for the Hound Dog sale of 2080 - 2200 Keys. That's only made worse when considering a wider timeframe.


                      Our rule on using the weekly average Key price is meant to accommodate anomalistic Key prices for a day or two, not consistent variance like cryptocurrencies exhibit stacked onto Key price variance.

                        Can this be closed at this point then? It seems like mods have pretty much decided not to accept it. I'd personally much prefer if it was, but since it seems like a decision has been made, it's long overdue to just close it instead.

                      yeah i understand not wanting this to set a precedent as i mentioned before, i also dont want any random tom dick or harry thinking its suddenly ok to use crypto sales to spam the open suggs and create more work for the price mods. that being said, i do believe that jay's argument below also makes sense, we're not pricing a 100 keys hat where the change in value of btc would move the needle a lot more. i'm just a little concerned that this was left open for the duration that it was, no offense i know that being a price mod is voluntary work on the side but back when i was actively suggesting, suggestions were never left open for more than 2 months ish