Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31494;5;u370

Marketplace.tf sale on 3/14/25

$79.99 / $1.85 (median value at the time) = 43.2

Rounding to 43

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31494;5;u370

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/14/25

$39.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 20.6

Rounding to 21

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31494;5;u370

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/15/25

$39.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 20.6

Rounding to 21

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31494;5;u370

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/25/25

$39.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 20.6

Rounding to 21

Sale #5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31494;5;u370

https://backpack.tf/item/15753214134

Marketplace.tf sale on 6/05/25

$44.50 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 22.9

Rounding to 23

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15744707610

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155386309#!/compare/1747353600/1747526400

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15714632733

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799587608#!/compare/1747526400/1749168000

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15714632733

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059656362#!/compare/1745452800/1748390400

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15714632733

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059656362#!/compare/1745452800/1748390400

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15702400187

12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871444509#!/compare/1746662400/1746921600 (ID: 15724984680)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977721610#!/compare/1746835200/1746921600

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15702400187

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089546434#!/compare/1740700800/1747180800

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15685766764

17 keys 1 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388067072#!/compare/1746230400/1746576000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1746489600/1746576000

Rounding to 17

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15685766764

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1747958400/1748044800

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15658572084

Sold with a Taunt: Mourning Mercs (~2.05) for a Strange Australium Force-A-Nature (~15.45) + 25 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339947134#!/compare/1746748800/1746921600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199128182851#!/compare/1746748800/1746835200

~16 - ~2 = ~14

Rounding to 14

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15658572084

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048605256#!/compare/1746748800/1747267200

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/15622086838

23 keys 193.11 ref for the dapper + ~6 keys in sweets

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199446739173#!/compare/1744761600/1749168000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163609625#!/compare/1744675200/1744761600

26 - 6 = 20

20

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/15565313660

Untraceable (histories dont match)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199015240094#!/compare/1743552000/1743638400

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/15557365522

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060280493#!/compare/1741478400/1742688000

Sale #19

https://backpack.tf/item/15539574400

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199804948837#!/compare/1745107200/1745971200

Sale #20

https://backpack.tf/item/15539574400

18 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199818619072#!/compare/1745107200/1745193600 (ID: 15661616804)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1745193600/1745193600/nearest

Sale #21

https://backpack.tf/item/15539574400

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137465310#!/compare/1739750400/1747008000

Sale #22

https://backpack.tf/item/15514018521

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389372563#!/compare/1741564800/1741651200

Sale #23

https://backpack.tf/item/15513090337

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198247522954#!/compare/1741564800/1743033600

Sale #24

https://backpack.tf/item/15513090337

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043858325#!/compare/1744588800/1744675200

Sale #25

https://backpack.tf/item/15506849806

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105948753#!/compare/1741564800/1741824000

Sale #26

https://backpack.tf/item/15506849806

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070355185#!/compare/1745366400/1747180800

Sale #27

https://backpack.tf/item/15492163209

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107137997#!/compare/1741651200/1742169600

Sale #28

https://backpack.tf/item/15492163209

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1742256000/1742342400

Sale #29

https://backpack.tf/item/15492163209

21 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600 (ID: 15627725946)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198412759781#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600

Sale #30

https://backpack.tf/item/15492163209

Sold for an Iridescence Wild Brim Slouch

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198412759781#!/compare/1745020800/1745366400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1745020800/1745020800/nearest

Iridescence Wild Brim Slouch mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31192;5;u188

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/28/25

$42.99 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 22.3

Rounding to 22

Back to Sale #30

22 keys

Sale #31

https://backpack.tf/item/15492163209

20 keys 0.22 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1745193600/1745280000 (ID: 15664913139)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199090728673#!/compare/1745193600/1745280000

Rounding to 20

Sale #32

https://backpack.tf/item/15361077369

20 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1743984000/1744070400 (Key ID: 15617192084)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216895147#!/compare/1743638400/1744070400

Sale #33

https://backpack.tf/item/15361077369

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216895147#!/compare/1745539200/1748390400

Sale #34

https://backpack.tf/item/15361077369

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199500810413#!/compare/1746057600/1746144000

Sale #35

https://backpack.tf/item/15361077369

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199365973875#!/compare/1745884800/1746057600

Sale #36

https://backpack.tf/item/15316707000

~12.25 keys in stuff

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198828579352#!/compare/1744243200/1744416000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119601623#!/compare/1744243200/1744588800

Rounding to 12

Sale #37

https://backpack.tf/item/15316707000

Dapper Noel + Dazzling Constellations Soft Hard Hat for a Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160996700#!/compare/1745020800/1745107200

Not doing the mini here because this will always be too high (around 30-35 keys)

Sale #38

https://backpack.tf/item/15316707000

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160996700#!/compare/1746057600/1746403200

Sale #39

https://backpack.tf/item/15316707000

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199746241974#!/compare/1746144000/1746230400

Sale #40

https://backpack.tf/item/15316707000

17 keys 3.55 ref

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080095368#!/compare/1739232000/1746403200

Rounding to 17

Sale #41

https://backpack.tf/item/15293944785

20 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1742169600/1742342400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202527336#!/compare/1741564800/1743638400

Sale #42

https://backpack.tf/item/15225463898

Bulk

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066047537#!/compare/1742860800/1742947200

Sale #43

https://backpack.tf/item/15225463898

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150645469#!/compare/1737676800/1743811200

Current sellers:

$44.95 on mp.tf

$79.99 on mp.tf

$41.37 on mannco.store

$54.99 on mannco.store

$69.69 on SCM

24.52 keys on bp.tf

26 keys on bp.tf (2x)

28 keys on bp.tf

30 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 43, 21, 21, 21, 23, 12, 17, 14, 20, 18, 21, 22, 20, 20, 12, 17, 20

43 is obviously a high outlier. STN buys at 17 currently so I am gonna call the sales at 12 and 14 as outliers (supported by consistent higher sales).

Final price: 17 - 23